Results

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Who homered -- 2026-08-06

Board rankPlayerPark Model P(HR)Fair odds
#5 of 196Olson, MattATL26.2%+282
#6 of 196Stewart, SalCIN25.1%+298
#11 of 196Acuña Jr., RonaldATL24.0%+317
#14 of 196Stephenson, TylerCIN23.1%+333
#15 of 196De La Cruz, EllyCIN22.6%+342
#18 of 196Bleday, JJCIN21.7%+361
#22 of 196Lowe, BrandonMIL20.1%+399
#31 of 196Dingler, DillonSEA19.0%+425
#46 of 196Lindor, FranciscoCLE17.4%+474
#47 of 196Serven, BrianCIN17.3%+478
#51 of 196Chourio, JacksonMIL17.1%+487
#57 of 196Neto, ZachBAL16.3%+513
#71 of 196Lowe, NathanielCLE15.1%+564
#83 of 196Semien, MarcusCLE14.2%+602
#93 of 196McGonigle, KevinSEA13.7%+628
#120 of 196Lewis, RoyceKC12.3%+710
#135 of 196Meidroth, ChaseBOS11.3%+784
#144 of 196Torrens, LuisCLE10.7%+837
#150 of 196Sánchez, GaryMIL10.4%+861
#157 of 196Pozo, YohelBAL9.8%+921
#177 of 196Wong, ConnorBOS8.4%+1085
#185 of 196Bregman, AlexCHC7.8%+1189
Board rank is where the model placed the player among all 196 scored hitters that day -- low numbers were called; high numbers were surprises.

The day vs the model

Model expected
27.7
Actually homered
22
Predictions scored
196
BucketN PredictedRealized
0%-10%438.3%7.0%
10%-15%8012.6%7.5%
15%-20%5117.3%11.8%
20%-25%1622.7%31.2%
25%-100%627.2%33.3%

All-time model scoreboard

Days tracked
4
Predictions
852
Predicted / realized HR rate
14.3% / 11.5%
Model bias vs reality
+24.7%
Top-10 picks: HRs vs expected
8 / 10.8
BucketN PredictedRealized
0%-10%1728.0%8.7%
10%-15%33412.6%12.0%
15%-20%24417.2%10.2%
20%-25%7222.3%13.9%
25%-100%3028.1%26.7%
Brier score 0.1026 vs constant-forecast baseline 0.1026 (behind it -- lower is better). "Model bias vs reality" is the running gap between what the model predicted and what happened -- positive means the model runs hot; it needs roughly two weeks of days before it stabilizes into a trustworthy number. Every prediction is frozen at publish time and scored against Statcast the next morning; scratched players are excluded. Small samples early -- calibration takes weeks.