Wins + Dingers
HR Board Results NFL SystemBox Office

Results

Who homered -- 2026-09-27

Board rankPlayerPark Model P(HR)Fair odds
#2 of 234Grichuk, RandalCWS16.3%+513
#10 of 234Seager, CoreyMIN14.5%+591
#18 of 234Chaparro, AndrésWSH13.8%+625
#19 of 234Conine, GriffinMIA13.7%+632
#32 of 234Valencia, EduardoDET12.7%+687
#38 of 234Lewis, RoyceMIN12.4%+705
#39 of 234Walker, ChristianOAK12.4%+706
#44 of 234Doyle, BrentonCWS12.2%+722
#45 of 234Harper, BrycePHI12.2%+722
#58 of 234Bell, JoshMIN11.6%+766
#61 of 234Lindor, FranciscoWSH11.5%+771
#73 of 234Bernal, LeoMIL11.1%+804
#76 of 234Carrigg, ColeCWS11.0%+810
#82 of 234Adell, JoKC10.8%+823
#86 of 234Hernández, HeribertoMIA10.7%+831
#88 of 234Sheets, GavinSD10.7%+832
#91 of 234McGonigle, KevinDET10.7%+837
#93 of 234Mauricio, RonnyWSH10.6%+847
#106 of 234Pages, AndySF9.8%+917
#107 of 234Griffin, KonnorDET9.8%+917
#110 of 234Valenzuela, BrandonTOR9.8%+926
#114 of 234Jansen, DannyMIN9.6%+940
#116 of 234McAdoo, CharlesTOR9.5%+949
#142 of 234Sosa, EdmundoPHI8.8%+1043
#149 of 234Pasquantino, VinnieKC8.5%+1076
#150 of 234Sánchez, GaryMIL8.4%+1086
#172 of 234Dubón, MauricioMIA7.9%+1164
#186 of 234Schneemann, DanielKC7.6%+1207
#221 of 234DeLuca, JonnyPHI6.3%+1492
Board rank is where the model placed the player among all 234 scored hitters that day -- low numbers were called; high numbers were surprises.

The day vs the model

Model expected
22.9
Actually homered
29
Predictions scored
234
BucketN PredictedRealized
0%-10%1307.9%8.5%
10%-15%9711.9%17.5%
15%-20%716.0%14.3%

Model scoreboard -- current version (v1.2-g075, since 2026-08-25)

Days tracked
34
Predictions
7,305
Predicted / realized HR rate
10.7% / 11.7%
Model bias vs reality
-9.0%
Top-10 picks: HRs vs expected
65 / 58.4
BucketN PredictedRealized
0%-10%32928.1%8.0%
10%-15%340012.1%14.4%
15%-20%59216.5%16.9%
20%-25%2121.3%19.0%

Previous version (v1.0 -- 2026-08-03 to 2026-08-24, retired after level recalibration)

Predictions
4,761
Predicted / realized
12.2% / 11.1%
Bias vs reality
+9.7%
Top-10: HRs vs expected
42 / 50.5
BucketNPredictedRealized
0%-10%17067.6%8.4%
10%-15%186912.3%11.6%
15%-20%88917.0%12.8%
20%-25%23022.0%15.7%
25%-100%6728.2%28.4%
Brier score 0.1020 vs constant-forecast baseline 0.1035 (beating it -- lower is better). "Model bias vs reality" is the running gap between what the model predicted and what happened -- positive means the model runs hot; it needs roughly two weeks of days before it stabilizes into a trustworthy number. Every prediction is frozen at publish time and scored against Statcast the next morning; scratched players are excluded. Small samples early -- calibration takes weeks.