Wins + Dingers

Tonight's HR Probability Board

August 08, 2026 · 268 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	Baldwin, Drake LHB · #1	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	33.7%	+197	34¢	27¢	163
2	Olson, Matt LHB · #3	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	33.6%	+198	34¢	27¢	185
3	Harris II, Michael LHB · #4	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	31.2%	+221	31¢	25¢	210
4	Acuña Jr., Ronald RHB · #2	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.35	29.4%	+241	29¢	24¢	121
5	Walker, Jordan RHB · #2	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	29.0%	+245	29¢	23¢	81
6	Rice, Ben LHB · #3	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.56	26.8%	+273	27¢	22¢	104
7	Sánchez, Jesús LHB · #4	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	25.7%	+290	26¢	21¢	156
8	Harper, Bryce LHB · #3	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	25.3%	+296	25¢	20¢	204
9	Alvarez, Yordan LHB · #2	SD	Michael King	x0.93	25.1%	+298	25¢	20¢	237
10	Murakami, Munetaka LHB · #2	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	24.3%	+311	24¢	19¢	118
11	De La Cruz, Elly RHB · #1	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	24.2%	+313	24¢	19¢	67
12	Schwarber, Kyle LHB · #1	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	24.1%	+315	24¢	19¢	141
13	Abrams, CJ LHB · #1	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	24.0%	+316	24¢	19¢	228
14	Stewart, Sal RHB · #2	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	24.0%	+317	24¢	19¢	70
15	Contreras, Willson RHB · #4	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	23.8%	+319	24¢	19¢	72
16	Ohtani, Shohei LHB · #1	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	23.7%	+322	24¢	19¢	195
17	Bauers, Jake LHB · #3	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.06	23.4%	+328	23¢	19¢	180
18	Goodman, Hunter RHB · #4	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	23.1%	+334	23¢	18¢	71
19	Ramos, Heliot RHB · #2	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.35	22.5%	+344	23¢	18¢	48
20	Vargas, Miguel RHB · #3	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.05	22.1%	+353	22¢	18¢	233
21	Lowe, Brandon LHB · #2	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	21.7%	+361	22¢	17¢	221
22	Lile, Daylen LHB · #4	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	21.4%	+367	21¢	17¢	261
23	Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #5	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.06	21.3%	+368	21¢	17¢	164
24	Lewis, Royce RHB · #3	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	21.2%	+371	21¢	17¢	62
25	Caminero, Junior RHB · #3	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	21.0%	+376	21¢	17¢	252
26	Riley, Austin RHB · #8	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.35	21.0%	+377	21¢	17¢	190
27	Burleson, Alec LHB · #4	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.18	20.8%	+381	21¢	17¢	119
28	Adell, Jo RHB · #2	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	20.6%	+385	21¢	16¢	95
29	Goldschmidt, Paul RHB · #1	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.35	20.5%	+387	21¢	16¢	97
30	Ortiz, Abimelec LHB · #2	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	20.3%	+392	20¢	16¢	10
31	Caglianone, Jac LHB · #3	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	20.2%	+394	20¢	16¢	197
32	Serven, Brian RHB · #6	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	20.2%	+395	20¢	16¢	11
33	Jordan, Blaze RHB · #7	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	19.9%	+404	20¢	16¢	41
34	Basabe, Osleivis RHB · #5	SF	Jackson Jobe	x1.02	19.8%	+405	20¢	16¢	13
35	Carroll, Corbin LHB · #2	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.02	19.8%	+406	20¢	16¢	218
36	Grisham, Trent LHB · #5	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.56	19.6%	+410	20¢	16¢	77
37	Dingler, Dillon RHB · #3	SF	Landen Roupp	x1.02	19.5%	+412	20¢	16¢	217
38	Crow-Armstrong, Pete LHB · #1	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.94	19.5%	+413	20¢	15¢	210
39	Heim, Jonah RHB · #3	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	19.5%	+413	19¢	15¢	92
40	Jones, Spencer LHB · #7	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.56	19.5%	+414	19¢	15¢	15
41	Seager, Corey LHB · #3	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.01	19.4%	+416	19¢	15¢	113
42	Muncy, Max LHB · #4	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	19.4%	+417	19¢	15¢	192
43	Canzone, Dominic LHB · #4	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	19.0%	+427	19¢	15¢	199
44	Rosario, Amed RHB · #4	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.35	18.9%	+428	19¢	15¢	84
45	Yastrzemski, Mike LHB · #7	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	18.9%	+430	19¢	15¢	172
46	Monasterio, Andruw RHB · #5	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	18.7%	+435	19¢	15¢	63
47	Jeffers, Ryan RHB · #2	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	18.1%	+451	18¢	14¢	56
48	Chourio, Jackson RHB · #2	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.04	18.1%	+451	18¢	14¢	190
49	Nimmo, Brandon LHB · #4	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.01	18.1%	+451	18¢	14¢	232
50	Bolte, Henry RHB · #1	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	18.1%	+453	18¢	14¢	55
51	Marsh, Brandon LHB · #6	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	17.9%	+458	18¢	14¢	234
52	Freeman, Freddie LHB · #3	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	17.9%	+458	18¢	14¢	240
53	Montgomery, Colson LHB · #4	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	17.9%	+460	18¢	14¢	173
54	Guerrero Jr., Vladimir RHB · #3	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.23	17.8%	+460	18¢	14¢	271
55	Wetherholt, JJ LHB · #1	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.18	17.8%	+463	18¢	14¢	127
56	Muncy, Max RHB · #8	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	17.8%	+463	18¢	14¢	42
57	Tatis Jr., Fernando RHB · #1	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.94	17.8%	+464	18¢	14¢	285
58	Taylor, Tyrone RHB · #9	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	17.7%	+465	18¢	14¢	61
59	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.00	17.6%	+469	18¢	14¢	217
60	Hoskins, Rhys RHB · #5	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	17.6%	+470	18¢	14¢	55
61	Crews, Dylan RHB · #3	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.28	17.5%	+471	18¢	14¢	115
62	Bateman, Brett LHB · #2	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	17.5%	+473	17¢	14¢	2
63	Jones, Jahmai RHB · #1	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	17.4%	+475	17¢	14¢	58
64	Turang, Brice LHB · #1	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.06	17.3%	+478	17¢	14¢	231
65	Pereira, Everson RHB · #9	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	17.3%	+478	17¢	14¢	14
66	Trout, Mike RHB · #2	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.92	17.3%	+479	17¢	14¢	175
67	Lindor, Francisco LHB · #2	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.03	17.3%	+479	17¢	14¢	124
68	Greene, Riley LHB · #4	SF	Landen Roupp	x0.92	17.2%	+480	17¢	14¢	207
69	Young, Jared LHB · #4	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.03	17.2%	+480	17¢	14¢	132
70	Stott, Bryson LHB · #5	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	17.2%	+483	17¢	14¢	243
71	Benintendi, Andrew LHB · #5	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	17.2%	+483	17¢	14¢	209
72	Karros, Kyle RHB · #2	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	17.0%	+487	17¢	13¢	90
73	Bleday, JJ LHB · #5	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.27	17.0%	+487	17¢	13¢	60
74	Suárez, Eugenio RHB · #4	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	17.0%	+487	17¢	13¢	33
75	Martínez, Angel RHB · #4	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	17.0%	+488	17¢	13¢	78
76	Clemens, Kody LHB · #5	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.06	16.8%	+494	17¢	13¢	71
77	Pederson, Joc LHB · #1	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.01	16.8%	+495	17¢	13¢	214
78	Yelich, Christian LHB · #7	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.06	16.7%	+498	17¢	13¢	160
79	Soderstrom, Tyler LHB · #4	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.30	16.6%	+503	17¢	13¢	89
80	Valenzuela, Brandon LHB · #7	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	16.5%	+506	17¢	13¢	98
81	Bell, Josh RHB · #4	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	16.4%	+508	16¢	13¢	106
82	Herrera, Iván RHB · #3	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	16.4%	+509	16¢	13¢	103
83	Suzuki, Seiya RHB · #2	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	16.3%	+514	16¢	13¢	193
84	Torkelson, Spencer RHB · #6	SF	Landen Roupp	x1.02	16.2%	+516	16¢	13¢	186
85	Reynolds, Bryan LHB · #3	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	16.2%	+518	16¢	13¢	201
86	Burger, Jake RHB · #7	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.00	16.0%	+523	16¢	13¢	226
87	McLain, Matt RHB · #6	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	16.0%	+524	16¢	13¢	50
88	Witt Jr., Bobby RHB · #2	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.95	15.9%	+528	16¢	13¢	226
89	Valdez, Esmerlyn RHB · #7	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.02	15.8%	+531	16¢	12¢	55
90	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #1	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.01	15.8%	+534	16¢	12¢	237
91	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	15.7%	+535	16¢	12¢	225
92	France, Ty RHB · #4	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.94	15.7%	+536	16¢	12¢	153
93	Antonacci, Sam LHB · #1	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	15.7%	+538	16¢	12¢	218
94	Smith, Josh LHB · #8	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	15.5%	+546	15¢	12¢	103
95	Eldridge, Bryce LHB · #1	SF	Jackson Jobe	x0.92	15.3%	+551	15¢	12¢	129
96	Alvarez, Francisco RHB · #9	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.02	15.3%	+554	15¢	12¢	134
97	Horwitz, Spencer LHB · #4	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	15.2%	+557	15¢	12¢	186
98	Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #4	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	15.2%	+558	15¢	12¢	82
99	White, Tommy RHB · #5	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	15.2%	+558	15¢	12¢	25
100	Church, Nathan LHB · #8	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.18	15.2%	+559	15¢	12¢	52
101	Happ, Ian LHB · #5	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.94	15.1%	+561	15¢	12¢	188
102	Machado, Manny RHB · #3	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.94	15.1%	+562	15¢	12¢	240
103	Trammell, Taylor LHB · #8	SD	Michael King	x0.93	15.1%	+563	15¢	12¢	83
104	Albies, Ozzie LHB · #5	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	15.1%	+563	15¢	12¢	205
105	Rave, John LHB · #6	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	15.0%	+566	15¢	12¢	21
106	Rafaela, Ceddanne RHB · #2	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	15.0%	+567	15¢	12¢	83
107	Marte, Ketel LHB · #4	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.02	15.0%	+568	15¢	12¢	273
108	Stowers, Kyle LHB · #3	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	14.8%	+573	15¢	12¢	173
109	Duran, Jarren LHB · #8	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.30	14.8%	+577	15¢	12¢	76
110	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #7	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.00	14.8%	+578	15¢	12¢	24
111	Culpepper, Kaelen RHB · #7	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	14.7%	+580	15¢	12¢	3
112	Conine, Griffin LHB · #5	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	14.7%	+581	15¢	12¢	72
113	Díaz, Yandy RHB · #1	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	14.6%	+583	15¢	12¢	255
114	De La Cruz, Bryan RHB · #8	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.23	14.6%	+583	15¢	12¢	10
115	Betts, Mookie RHB · #5	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.01	14.6%	+583	15¢	12¢	180
116	Genao, Angel RHB · #9	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	14.6%	+584	15¢	11¢	2
117	Devers, Rafael LHB · #4	SF	Jackson Jobe	x0.92	14.5%	+589	15¢	11¢	212
118	Smith, Cam RHB · #7	SD	Michael King	x0.94	14.5%	+589	15¢	11¢	201
119	Cowser, Colton LHB · #8	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.01	14.5%	+589	14¢	11¢	139
120	Ewing, A.J. LHB · #1	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.03	14.5%	+591	14¢	11¢	152
121	Castro, Willi RHB · #6	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	14.5%	+592	14¢	11¢	87
122	McCarthy, Jake LHB · #1	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.18	14.4%	+593	14¢	11¢	75
123	Turner, Trea RHB · #2	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.23	14.4%	+594	14¢	11¢	243
124	Langford, Wyatt RHB · #2	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.00	14.4%	+596	14¢	11¢	141
125	Jensen, Carter LHB · #1	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	14.3%	+597	14¢	11¢	189
126	Merrill, Jackson LHB · #5	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.93	14.3%	+598	14¢	11¢	238
127	Carrigg, Cole RHB · #3	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	14.3%	+601	14¢	11¢	57
128	Raleigh, Cal LHB · #8	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	14.0%	+613	14¢	11¢	136
129	Marte, Noelvi RHB · #8	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	13.9%	+618	14¢	11¢	29
130	Wells, Austin LHB · #9	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.56	13.9%	+619	14¢	11¢	49
131	Baty, Brett LHB · #6	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.03	13.9%	+622	14¢	11¢	195
132	Adames, Willy RHB · #3	SF	Jackson Jobe	x1.02	13.8%	+625	14¢	11¢	227
133	Walker, Christian RHB · #5	SD	Michael King	x0.94	13.8%	+627	14¢	11¢	242
134	Hernández, Teoscar RHB · #8	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.01	13.6%	+635	14¢	11¢	145
135	Pages, Andy RHB · #2	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.01	13.6%	+636	14¢	11¢	251
136	Caissie, Owen LHB · #7	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	13.6%	+637	14¢	11¢	123
137	Busch, Michael LHB · #3	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.94	13.5%	+640	14¢	11¢	224
138	Tovar, Ezequiel RHB · #9	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	13.5%	+642	13¢	11¢	67
139	Tena, José LHB · #8	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	13.4%	+644	13¢	11¢	132
140	Jarvis, Jim LHB · #9	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.56	13.3%	+650	13¢	10¢	61
141	White, Eli RHB · #6	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	13.3%	+651	13¢	10¢	61
142	Holliday, Jackson LHB · #3	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.01	13.3%	+651	13¢	10¢	102
143	Nootbaar, Lars LHB · #5	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.02	13.3%	+654	13¢	10¢	106
144	McCann, James RHB · #8	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.01	13.3%	+654	13¢	10¢	42
145	Duran, Ezequiel RHB · #5	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.00	13.3%	+654	13¢	10¢	219
146	Myers, Dane RHB · #3	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	13.2%	+658	13¢	10¢	51
147	Campusano, Luis RHB · #6	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.94	13.2%	+660	13¢	10¢	68
148	Beck, Jordan RHB · #7	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	13.0%	+670	13¢	10¢	29
149	Wong, Connor RHB · #9	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	13.0%	+672	13¢	10¢	39
150	Hayes, Ke'Bryan RHB · #9	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	12.9%	+677	13¢	10¢	30
151	Dubón, Mauricio RHB · #6	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.35	12.8%	+680	13¢	10¢	221
152	Fermín, José RHB · #5	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	12.8%	+681	13¢	10¢	88
153	Contreras, William RHB · #4	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.04	12.8%	+683	13¢	10¢	266
154	Davis, Henry RHB · #9	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.02	12.8%	+684	13¢	10¢	107
155	Neto, Zach RHB · #4	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.92	12.7%	+686	13¢	10¢	208
156	Lowe, Josh LHB · #8	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.90	12.6%	+693	13¢	10¢	124
157	Swanson, Dansby RHB · #8	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	12.6%	+695	13¢	10¢	207
158	Arozarena, Randy RHB · #3	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.93	12.5%	+702	12¢	10¢	225
159	Moreno, Gabriel RHB · #3	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.01	12.4%	+705	12¢	10¢	193
160	Ballesteros, Moisés LHB · #6	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.90	12.3%	+711	12¢	10¢	123
161	Rodríguez, Julio RHB · #5	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.93	12.3%	+715	12¢	10¢	234
162	McGonigle, Kevin LHB · #1	SF	Landen Roupp	x0.92	12.2%	+721	12¢	9¢	257
163	Young, Jacob RHB · #9	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.28	12.0%	+734	12¢	9¢	167
164	Young, Cole LHB · #2	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	12.0%	+735	12¢	9¢	243
165	Peters, Tristan LHB · #7	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	11.9%	+738	12¢	9¢	221
166	Hernández, Heriberto RHB · #6	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.92	11.9%	+741	12¢	9¢	124
167	Simon, Ronny LHB · #6	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	11.8%	+750	12¢	9¢	6
168	DeLauter, Chase LHB · #3	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.04	11.8%	+750	12¢	9¢	93
169	Hedges, Austin RHB · #8	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	11.8%	+751	12¢	9¢	68
170	Feduccia, Hunter LHB · #9	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	11.7%	+754	12¢	9¢	85
171	Giménez, Andrés LHB · #6	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	11.6%	+761	12¢	9¢	204
172	Durbin, Caleb RHB · #3	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	11.6%	+763	12¢	9¢	90
173	Romo, Drew LHB · #9	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	11.5%	+767	12¢	9¢	80
174	Trevino, Jose RHB · #7	WSH	Andrew Alvarez	x1.28	11.5%	+768	12¢	9¢	10
175	Rocchio, Brayan RHB · #6	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.05	11.5%	+771	11¢	9¢	104
176	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #5	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.01	11.4%	+774	11¢	9¢	110
177	Kreidler, Ryan RHB · #9	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	11.4%	+777	11¢	9¢	62
178	Tawa, Tim RHB · #7	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.01	11.3%	+783	11¢	9¢	95
179	Varsho, Daulton LHB · #6	SD	Michael King	x0.93	11.3%	+786	11¢	9¢	204
180	O'Neill, Tyler RHB · #4	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.00	11.3%	+788	11¢	9¢	65
181	Peña, Jeremy RHB · #1	SD	Michael King	x0.94	11.3%	+788	11¢	9¢	173
182	Butler, Lawrence LHB · #7	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.30	11.2%	+790	11¢	9¢	52
183	Tucker, Kyle LHB · #6	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	11.2%	+791	11¢	9¢	213
184	Edman, Tommy LHB · #7	ARI	Brandon Pfaadt	x1.02	11.1%	+799	11¢	9¢	75
185	Stubbs, Garrett LHB · #9	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	11.1%	+802	11¢	9¢	25
186	Grissom, Vaughn RHB · #5	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.92	11.1%	+804	11¢	9¢	136
187	Wilson, Jacob RHB · #2	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	11.0%	+808	11¢	9¢	92
188	Ruiz, Keibert LHB · #5	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	11.0%	+809	11¢	9¢	147
189	Taveras, Leody LHB · #6	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.01	10.8%	+824	11¢	8¢	158
190	Paredes, Isaac RHB · #3	SD	Michael King	x0.94	10.8%	+824	11¢	8¢	259
191	Winn, Masyn RHB · #6	STL	Kyle Freeland	x1.19	10.8%	+827	11¢	8¢	77
192	Sogard, Nick RHB · #7	BOS	Gage Jump	x1.32	10.8%	+828	11¢	8¢	13
193	Vivas, Jorbit LHB · #6	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	10.8%	+830	11¢	8¢	153
194	Waldschmidt, Ryan RHB · #9	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.01	10.7%	+835	11¢	8¢	81
195	Mack, Joe LHB · #8	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	10.5%	+850	11¢	8¢	120
196	Arenado, Nolan RHB · #6	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.01	10.5%	+851	11¢	8¢	212
197	Keith, Colt LHB · #5	SF	Landen Roupp	x0.92	10.5%	+853	10¢	8¢	227
198	Torres, Gleyber RHB · #2	SF	Landen Roupp	x1.02	10.5%	+856	10¢	8¢	131
199	Rumfield, TJ LHB · #5	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.18	10.4%	+865	10¢	8¢	101
200	Montgomery, Braden LHB · #6	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.04	10.3%	+871	10¢	8¢	98
201	Semien, Marcus RHB · #7	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.02	10.2%	+880	10¢	8¢	203
202	Massey, Michael LHB · #5	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	10.2%	+881	10¢	8¢	201
203	Narváez, Carlos RHB · #9	TEX	Jacob deGrom	x1.00	10.2%	+884	10¢	8¢	93
204	Williams, Alika RHB · #9	BOS	Jake Bennett	x1.32	10.2%	+886	10¢	8¢	55
205	Caballero, José RHB · #8	NYY	Chris Sale	x1.35	10.1%	+888	10¢	8¢	75
206	Carter, Evan LHB · #6	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.01	10.1%	+889	10¢	8¢	175
207	Altuve, Jose RHB · #4	SD	Michael King	x0.94	10.0%	+896	10¢	8¢	211
208	Bregman, Alex RHB · #4	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	9.8%	+921	10¢	8¢	281
209	Donovan, Brendan LHB · #7	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	9.8%	+922	10¢	8¢	56
210	Sheets, Gavin LHB · #7	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.93	9.7%	+929	10¢	7¢	202
211	Meckler, Wade LHB · #1	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.90	9.6%	+945	10¢	7¢	114
212	Lopez, Otto RHB · #4	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.92	9.5%	+950	10¢	7¢	297
213	Bogaerts, Xander RHB · #8	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.94	9.5%	+952	10¢	7¢	220
214	Koss, Christian RHB · #9	SF	Jackson Jobe	x1.02	9.4%	+959	9¢	7¢	28
215	Clement, Ernie RHB · #5	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.23	9.3%	+973	9¢	7¢	287
216	Lee, Brooks RHB · #8	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	9.3%	+977	9¢	7¢	96
217	Straw, Myles RHB · #9	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.23	9.3%	+980	9¢	7¢	82
218	Martin, Austin RHB · #1	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	9.3%	+980	9¢	7¢	93
219	Perdomo, Geraldo LHB · #1	ARI	Yoshinobu Yamamoto	x1.02	9.2%	+991	9¢	7¢	249
220	Bichette, Bo RHB · #3	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.02	9.1%	+998	9¢	7¢	279
221	Wynns, Austin RHB · #8	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.00	9.0%	+1009	9¢	7¢	26
222	Cavanaugh, Drew LHB · #8	SF	Jackson Jobe	x0.92	9.0%	+1015	9¢	7¢	36
223	Gonzalez, Jacob LHB · #8	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	8.9%	+1019	9¢	7¢	90
224	Meidroth, Chase RHB · #8	CWS	Gavin Williams	x1.05	8.9%	+1020	9¢	7¢	216
225	Keaschall, Luke RHB · #6	MIL	Robert Gasser	x1.04	8.9%	+1028	9¢	7¢	90
226	Loftin, Nick RHB · #7	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.95	8.9%	+1028	9¢	7¢	122
227	Cronenworth, Jake LHB · #2	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.93	8.8%	+1042	9¢	7¢	125
228	Collins, Isaac LHB · #4	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	8.7%	+1055	9¢	7¢	166
229	Naylor, Josh LHB · #6	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	8.6%	+1056	9¢	7¢	259
230	Mullins, Cedric LHB · #6	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	8.6%	+1060	9¢	7¢	193
231	Vaughn, Andrew RHB · #6	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.04	8.6%	+1064	9¢	7¢	103
232	Freeman, Tyler RHB · #8	STL	Matthew Liberatore	x1.19	8.2%	+1122	8¢	6¢	78
233	Ward, Taylor RHB · #1	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.93	8.2%	+1125	8¢	6¢	231
234	Palacios, Richie LHB · #7	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	8.1%	+1131	8¢	6¢	156
235	Gonzales, Nick RHB · #5	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.02	8.1%	+1136	8¢	6¢	237
236	Pratt, Cooper RHB · #8	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.04	8.1%	+1140	8¢	6¢	85
237	Fortes, Nick RHB · #8	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	7.8%	+1176	8¢	6¢	113
238	Polanco, Jorge LHB · #8	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.03	7.8%	+1178	8¢	6¢	67
239	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	PHI	Aaron Nola	x1.25	7.8%	+1186	8¢	6¢	197
240	Kelly, Carson RHB · #7	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	7.7%	+1206	8¢	6¢	146
241	Bazzana, Travis LHB · #7	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.04	7.6%	+1222	8¢	6¢	69
242	Clark, Max LHB · #7	SF	Landen Roupp	x0.92	7.6%	+1222	8¢	6¢	12
243	Rojas, Josh LHB · #8	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	7.5%	+1225	8¢	6¢	45
244	Emerson, Colt LHB · #9	SEA	Griffin Jax	x0.92	7.5%	+1236	7¢	6¢	95
245	Arraez, Luis LHB · #4	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	7.4%	+1250	7¢	6¢	304
246	Marsee, Jakob LHB · #1	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	7.3%	+1262	7¢	6¢	224
247	Lee, Jung Hoo LHB · #2	SF	Jackson Jobe	x0.92	7.3%	+1271	7¢	5¢	263
248	Báez, Javier RHB · #8	SF	Landen Roupp	x1.02	7.1%	+1316	7¢	5¢	66
249	Guzman, Denzer RHB · #7	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.92	7.0%	+1321	7¢	5¢	82
250	Rengifo, Luis LHB · #9	SD	Peter Lambert	x0.93	6.9%	+1349	7¢	5¢	137
251	Schanuel, Nolan LHB · #3	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.90	6.9%	+1354	7¢	5¢	226
252	Edwards, Xavier LHB · #2	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.90	6.9%	+1358	7¢	5¢	283
253	Isbel, Kyle LHB · #9	KC	Clay Holmes	x0.94	6.8%	+1363	7¢	5¢	108
254	Gilbert, Drew LHB · #6	SF	Jackson Jobe	x0.92	6.7%	+1398	7¢	5¢	170
255	Walls, Taylor LHB · #9	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	6.6%	+1412	7¢	5¢	123
256	Crawford, Justin LHB · #7	PHI	Max Scherzer	x1.25	6.6%	+1417	7¢	5¢	215
257	Ortiz, Joey RHB · #9	MIL	Taj Bradley	x1.04	6.5%	+1432	7¢	5¢	138
258	Mangum, Jake LHB · #1	PIT	Robert Stock	x1.03	6.5%	+1443	6¢	5¢	185
259	Heineman, Tyler LHB · #9	MIA	Sandy Alcantara	x0.90	6.3%	+1488	6¢	5¢	72
260	Robert Jr., Luis RHB · #5	PIT	Bubba Chandler	x1.02	6.3%	+1494	6¢	5¢	73
261	McKinstry, Zach LHB · #9	SF	Landen Roupp	x0.92	5.3%	+1792	5¢	4¢	187
262	Hoerner, Nico RHB · #6	KC	Seth Lugo	x0.95	5.0%	+1897	5¢	4¢	306
263	Kwan, Steven LHB · #1	CWS	Anthony Kay	x1.04	4.8%	+2005	5¢	3¢	90
264	Vázquez, Christian RHB · #9	SD	Michael King	x0.94	4.6%	+2072	5¢	3¢	118
265	Nuñez, Nasim LHB · #7	WSH	Chase Burns	x1.27	4.3%	+2198	4¢	3¢	181
266	Sanoja, Javier RHB · #9	MIA	Walbert Ureña	x0.92	3.9%	+2457	4¢	3¢	185
267	Lopez, Nicky LHB · #9	TEX	Kyle Bradish	x1.01	3.9%	+2470	4¢	3¢	114
268	Simpson, Chandler LHB · #5	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	2.6%	+3784	3¢	2¢	250

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Atlanta Braves @ New York Yankees	NYY	4.00	76%
Colorado Rockies @ St. Louis Cardinals	STL	3.10	60%
Cincinnati Reds @ Washington Nationals	WSH	3.06	59%
Athletics @ Boston Red Sox	BOS	2.97	57%
Toronto Blue Jays @ Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	2.90	55%
Minnesota Twins @ Milwaukee Brewers	MIL	2.77	52%
Cleveland Guardians @ Chicago White Sox	CWS	2.74	52%
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Arizona Diamondbacks	ARI	2.68	50%
Baltimore Orioles @ Texas Rangers	TEX	2.55	47%
New York Mets @ Pittsburgh Pirates	PIT	2.42	44%
Houston Astros @ San Diego Padres	SD	2.41	43%
Chicago Cubs @ Kansas City Royals	KC	2.38	42%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Seattle Mariners	SEA	2.15	36%
Detroit Tigers @ San Francisco Giants	SF	2.13	36%
Los Angeles Angels @ Miami Marlins	MIA	1.98	32%

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.