Wins + Dingers

Tonight's HR Probability Board

September 23, 2026 · 162 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	vs usual	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	García Jr., Luis LHB · #3	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+12%	15.9%	+527	16¢	13¢	349
2	Rice, Ben LHB · #1	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	15.8%	+534	16¢	12¢	268
3	Alvarez, Yordan LHB · #2	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	14.7%	+582	15¢	12¢	302
4	Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #1	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	14.6%	+584	15¢	11¢	124
5	Soto, Juan LHB · #2	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	14.3%	+597	14¢	11¢	113
6	Seager, Corey LHB · #2	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-4%	14.1%	+611	14¢	11¢	180
7	Caminero, Junior RHB · #3	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	13.9%	+619	14¢	11¢	349
8	Canzone, Dominic LHB · #3	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	13.7%	+631	14¢	11¢	268
9	Chourio, Jackson RHB · #2	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+4%	13.5%	+640	14¢	11¢	266
10	Alvarez, Francisco RHB · #7	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +30%	13.4%	+644	13¢	11¢	62
11	Schwarber, Kyle LHB · #1	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	13.4%	+644	13¢	11¢	211
12	Ramos, Heliot RHB · #4	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	13.2%	+657	13¢	10¢	202
13	Raleigh, Cal LHB · #4	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	13.2%	+658	13¢	10¢	183
14	Lewis, Royce RHB · #6	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+14%	13.1%	+661	13¢	10¢	98
15	Vientos, Mark RHB · #4	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	13.0%	+671	13¢	10¢	83
16	Jones, Spencer LHB · #5	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	12.7%	+686	13¢	10¢	116
17	Harper, Bryce LHB · #3	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	12.6%	+696	13¢	10¢	267
18	Burleson, Alec LHB · #3	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	12.5%	+699	13¢	10¢	322
19	Wood, James LHB · #1	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.82	▼ -21%	12.5%	+699	13¢	10¢	119
20	Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #1	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	12.5%	+700	12¢	10¢	216
21	Bericoto, Victor RHB · #3	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	12.5%	+701	12¢	10¢	37
22	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	12.4%	+705	12¢	10¢	305
23	Bell, Josh RHB · #3	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+14%	12.4%	+706	12¢	10¢	150
24	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	12.3%	+714	12¢	10¢	291
25	Contreras, William RHB · #4	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+5%	12.1%	+725	12¢	9¢	338
26	Nimmo, Brandon LHB · #4	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	12.1%	+726	12¢	9¢	289
27	Jeffers, Ryan RHB · #4	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+14%	12.1%	+726	12¢	9¢	90
28	Bichette, Bo RHB · #3	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	12.1%	+729	12¢	9¢	136
29	Bauers, Jake LHB · #5	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	12.1%	+729	12¢	9¢	217
30	Lindor, Francisco RHB · #1	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	12.1%	+729	12¢	9¢	100
31	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	11.8%	+744	12¢	9¢	291
32	Flores Jr., Rafael RHB · #2	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	11.6%	+766	12¢	9¢	44
33	Smith, Cam RHB · #7	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	11.4%	+776	11¢	9¢	260
34	Reynolds, Bryan RHB · #3	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	11.3%	+787	11¢	9¢	156
35	Trammell, Taylor LHB · #6	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	11.1%	+799	11¢	9¢	135
36	Walker, Christian RHB · #5	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	11.1%	+800	11¢	9¢	324
37	Walker, Jordan RHB · #4	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	11.0%	+807	11¢	9¢	314
38	Greene, Riley LHB · #4	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	10.9%	+819	11¢	8¢	104
39	Bernal, Leo LHB · #5	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	10.7%	+834	11¢	8¢	43
40	Whitcomb, Shay RHB · #8	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	10.7%	+835	11¢	8¢	26
41	McMahon, Ryan LHB · #8	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	10.7%	+836	11¢	8¢	181
42	Chisholm Jr., Jazz LHB · #6	NYY	Mason Englert	x1.00	+13%	10.6%	+841	11¢	8¢	221
43	Lowe, Brandon LHB · #4	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	-6%	10.6%	+844	11¢	8¢	115
44	Rodriguez, Emmanuel LHB · #7	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x0.99	+10%	10.6%	+844	11¢	8¢	10
45	Benge, Carson LHB · #5	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	10.6%	+845	11¢	8¢	112
46	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #4	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	10.4%	+858	10¢	8¢	274
47	Montes, Lazaro LHB · #8	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+1%	10.4%	+862	10¢	8¢	14
48	Mayer, Marcelo LHB · #7	SF	Connor Prielipp	x0.99	+14%	10.3%	+872	10¢	8¢	16
49	Chaparro, Andrés RHB · #2	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	10.2%	+880	10¢	8¢	84
50	Ross, Ben RHB · #9	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+14%	10.2%	+885	10¢	8¢	4
51	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #3	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	10.1%	+887	10¢	8¢	310
52	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #1	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	9.9%	+908	10¢	8¢	173
53	Yelich, Christian LHB · #7	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	9.9%	+910	10¢	8¢	219
54	Turang, Brice LHB · #3	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	9.9%	+910	10¢	8¢	279
55	Langford, Wyatt RHB · #1	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	9.8%	+924	10¢	8¢	198
56	Davidson, Bo LHB · #4	SF	Connor Prielipp	x0.99	+15%	9.7%	+930	10¢	7¢	1
57	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #3	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-18%	9.7%	+931	10¢	7¢	310
58	Cowser, Colton LHB · #6	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	9.7%	+931	10¢	7¢	186
59	Mateo, Jorge RHB · #9	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	9.7%	+933	10¢	7¢	77
60	Semien, Marcus RHB · #6	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	9.7%	+933	10¢	7¢	98
61	Diaz, Yainer RHB · #4	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	9.7%	+935	10¢	7¢	201
62	Rodríguez, Julio RHB · #5	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	9.7%	+936	10¢	7¢	312
63	Lee, Hao-Yu RHB · #2	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	9.6%	+938	10¢	7¢	99
64	Marsh, Brandon LHB · #7	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	9.6%	+943	10¢	7¢	306
65	Burger, Jake RHB · #6	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	9.5%	+949	10¢	7¢	271
66	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #1	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-17%	9.5%	+952	10¢	7¢	173
67	Sabato, Aaron RHB · #8	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+14%	9.5%	+952	10¢	7¢	1
68	House, Brady RHB · #3	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	9.4%	+959	9¢	7¢	70
69	Abrams, CJ LHB · #4	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.82	▼ -21%	9.4%	+963	9¢	7¢	124
70	Crawford, J.P. LHB · #1	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	9.4%	+963	9¢	7¢	208
71	Roden, Alan LHB · #5	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x0.99	+10%	9.4%	+964	9¢	7¢	13
72	Crews, Dylan RHB · #5	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	9.4%	+965	9¢	7¢	94
73	Cox, Jonah RHB · #1	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	9.4%	+968	9¢	7¢	38
74	Lombard Jr., George RHB · #2	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	9.3%	+972	9¢	7¢	88
75	Ewing, A.J. LHB · #8	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.01	+17%	9.2%	+981	9¢	7¢	82
76	Cowser, Colton LHB · #6	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.86	-17%	9.2%	+981	9¢	7¢	186
77	Knizner, Andrew RHB · #5	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	9.2%	+992	9¢	7¢	32
78	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #3	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -43%	9.1%	+994	9¢	7¢	274
79	Harris, Brett RHB · #6	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	9.1%	+1000	9¢	7¢	13
80	Simon, Ronny RHB · #6	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+2%	9.1%	+1000	9¢	7¢	15
81	Arozarena, Randy RHB · #2	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	9.0%	+1010	9¢	7¢	287
82	Morabito, Nick RHB · #9	TEX	Cody Bradford	x1.00	▲ +31%	9.0%	+1012	9¢	7¢	6
83	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #5	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	8.9%	+1017	9¢	7¢	87
84	Keys, Sean LHB · #5	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	8.9%	+1019	9¢	7¢	31
85	Jung, Josh RHB · #3	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	8.9%	+1020	9¢	7¢	231
86	Griffin, Konnor RHB · #1	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	8.9%	+1025	9¢	7¢	57
87	Lee, Brooks RHB · #2	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+15%	8.9%	+1029	9¢	7¢	135
88	Morales, Yohandy RHB · #6	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	8.8%	+1031	9¢	7¢	12
89	Smith, Josh LHB · #2	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	8.8%	+1040	9¢	7¢	132
90	Stott, Bryson LHB · #6	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-2%	8.8%	+1040	9¢	7¢	324
91	Schneider, Davis RHB · #6	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	8.8%	+1042	9¢	7¢	38
92	Gorman, Nolan LHB · #6	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	8.8%	+1043	9¢	7¢	138
93	Hill, Turner LHB · #2	SF	Connor Prielipp	x0.99	+15%	8.7%	+1047	9¢	7¢	24
94	Dingler, Dillon RHB · #5	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	8.6%	+1057	9¢	7¢	120
95	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #5	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	8.6%	+1063	9¢	7¢	87
96	Vilade, Ryan RHB · #7	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+2%	8.6%	+1066	9¢	7¢	62
97	Young, Cole LHB · #7	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	8.5%	+1075	9¢	6¢	312
98	Torkelson, Spencer RHB · #7	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	8.5%	+1078	8¢	6¢	101
99	Turner, Trea RHB · #2	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	8.4%	+1092	8¢	6¢	316
100	McGonigle, Kevin LHB · #1	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	8.3%	+1100	8¢	6¢	140
101	Hicks, Liam LHB · #4	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-2%	8.3%	+1100	8¢	6¢	330
102	Smith, Josh LHB · #5	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	8.2%	+1112	8¢	6¢	132
103	Ford, Harry RHB · #7	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	8.2%	+1122	8¢	6¢	30
104	Koss, Christian RHB · #9	SF	Connor Prielipp	x1.10	+3%	8.2%	+1124	8¢	6¢	44
105	McAdoo, Charles RHB · #7	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	8.1%	+1130	8¢	6¢	32
106	Keaschall, Luke RHB · #1	SF	Cesar Perdomo	x1.10	+15%	8.1%	+1130	8¢	6¢	142
107	Sánchez, Ali RHB · #9	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	8.1%	+1142	8¢	6¢	29
108	Duran, Ezequiel RHB · #5	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	8.0%	+1144	8¢	6¢	288
109	Mayo, Coby RHB · #4	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	8.0%	+1145	8¢	6¢	164
110	Paredes, Isaac RHB · #3	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	8.0%	+1150	8¢	6¢	351
111	Jackson, Jeremiah RHB · #7	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	7.9%	+1164	8¢	6¢	139
112	Altuve, Jose RHB · #1	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	7.9%	+1171	8¢	6¢	304
113	Palacios, Richie LHB · #6	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-2%	7.8%	+1179	8¢	6¢	225
114	Realmuto, J.T. RHB · #8	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	7.8%	+1180	8¢	6¢	221
115	Valenzuela, Brandon LHB · #7	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	7.8%	+1184	8¢	6¢	120
116	Caballero, José RHB · #7	NYY	Mason Englert	x0.86	+15%	7.8%	+1185	8¢	6¢	215
117	Mayo, Coby RHB · #4	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.7%	+1194	8¢	6¢	164
118	Mullins, Cedric LHB · #8	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x1.00	-1%	7.7%	+1199	8¢	6¢	258
119	Guerrero Jr., Vladimir RHB · #2	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	7.7%	+1202	8¢	6¢	348
120	Franklin, Christian RHB · #8	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.7%	+1204	8¢	6¢	10
121	DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #5	NYY	Gerrit Cole	x0.86	+3%	7.7%	+1205	8¢	6¢	151
122	Jackson, Jeremiah RHB · #7	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.6%	+1218	8¢	6¢	139
123	Malgeri, Ben RHB · #3	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	7.5%	+1225	8¢	6¢	46
124	Naylor, Josh LHB · #6	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.92	+2%	7.5%	+1230	8¢	6¢	332
125	Ortiz, Joey RHB · #6	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.91	+5%	7.5%	+1232	8¢	6¢	186
126	Carter, Evan LHB · #9	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	7.5%	+1235	7¢	6¢	235
127	O'Hearn, Ryan LHB · #7	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	-7%	7.5%	+1240	7¢	6¢	92
128	Jansen, Danny RHB · #8	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.00	▼ -22%	7.4%	+1242	7¢	6¢	99
129	Wetherholt, JJ LHB · #1	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	7.4%	+1242	7¢	6¢	265
130	Bohm, Alec RHB · #5	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.91	-12%	7.3%	+1266	7¢	6¢	315
131	Herrera, Iván RHB · #2	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	7.2%	+1289	7¢	5¢	320
132	Springer, George RHB · #4	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -43%	7.1%	+1303	7¢	5¢	252
133	Kirk, Alejandro RHB · #3	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	7.1%	+1303	7¢	5¢	166
134	Peck, John RHB · #8	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.80	-19%	7.1%	+1308	7¢	5¢	15
135	Spence, Lucas LHB · #8	SEA	George Kirby	x0.92	-18%	7.1%	+1310	7¢	5¢	14
136	Narváez, Carlos RHB · #9	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.79	-14%	7.0%	+1331	7¢	5¢	115
137	Pozo, Yohel RHB · #9	BAL	CJ Van Eyk	x0.79	▼ -21%	7.0%	+1333	7¢	5¢	25
138	Young, Jacob RHB · #8	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	7.0%	+1333	7¢	5¢	118
139	Church, Nathan LHB · #8	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	-20%	7.0%	+1337	7¢	5¢	268
140	Wilson, Weston RHB · #9	SEA	Ethan Pecko	x0.93	-10%	6.8%	+1381	7¢	5¢	36
141	Taveras, Leody LHB · #8	BAL	Max Scherzer	x0.86	-9%	6.7%	+1384	7¢	5¢	213
142	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.86	-15%	6.6%	+1413	7¢	5¢	281
143	Lukes, Nathan LHB · #1	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	6.6%	+1422	7¢	5¢	281
144	Mangum, Jake RHB · #9	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	6.3%	+1485	6¢	5¢	93
145	Clark, Max LHB · #6	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-17%	6.1%	+1537	6¢	5¢	46
146	Giménez, Andrés LHB · #6	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.86	-16%	6.1%	+1545	6¢	4¢	261
147	Hamilton, David LHB · #9	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-3%	6.0%	+1553	6¢	4¢	205
148	Frelick, Sal LHB · #8	PHI	Aaron Nola	x0.92	-2%	6.0%	+1564	6¢	4¢	218
149	Allen, Nick RHB · #9	SEA	George Kirby	x0.93	-4%	5.7%	+1661	6¢	4¢	81
150	Triolo, Jared RHB · #8	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	5.6%	+1676	6¢	4¢	109
151	Arraez, Luis LHB · #4	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-1%	5.4%	+1742	5¢	4¢	398
152	Winn, Masyn RHB · #9	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -23%	5.3%	+1794	5¢	4¢	263
153	Gonzales, Nick RHB · #5	PIT	Matthew Liberatore	x0.81	+3%	5.3%	+1798	5¢	4¢	142
154	Straw, Myles RHB · #8	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	4.7%	+2046	5¢	3¢	122
155	McKinstry, Zach LHB · #9	DET	Richard Lovelady	x0.82	-16%	4.6%	+2074	5¢	3¢	62
156	Fermín, José RHB · #7	PIT	Lake Bachar	x0.81	▼ -24%	4.6%	+2083	5¢	3¢	151
157	Clement, Ernie RHB · #9	BAL	Trey Gibson	x0.79	-17%	4.5%	+2147	4¢	3¢	354
158	Crawford, Justin LHB · #9	PHI	Logan Henderson	x0.92	-1%	4.1%	+2321	4¢	3¢	293
159	Nuñez, Nasim RHB · #9	DET	Framber Valdez	x0.80	▼ -22%	4.0%	+2419	4¢	3¢	99
160	Straw, Myles RHB · #8	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	3.9%	+2471	4¢	3¢	122
161	Lopez, Nicky LHB · #7	TEX	Nolan McLean	x1.01	-5%	3.9%	+2477	4¢	3¢	152
162	Clement, Ernie RHB · #9	BAL	Chris Bassitt	x0.79	▼ -44%	3.7%	+2603	4¢	3¢	354

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles	BAL	2.83	54%
Tampa Bay Rays @ New York Yankees	NYY	2.16	37%
New York Mets @ Texas Rangers	TEX	2.00	32%
Minnesota Twins @ San Francisco Giants	SF	1.94	31%
Houston Astros @ Seattle Mariners	SEA	1.85	28%
Milwaukee Brewers @ Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	1.76	26%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Pirates	PIT	1.51	20%
Washington Nationals @ Detroit Tigers	DET	1.50	19%
ALL GAMES (8)		15.6

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "vs usual" compares tonight's modeled rate to the hitter's own season talent baseline -- it isolates what the matchup and ballpark/weather are doing to HIS normal night. ▲ +25% or more is an unusually favorable setup; ▼ -20% or worse is an unusually hostile one. A star can be elevated and a scrub suppressed on the same slate; this column is about the setup, not the player. "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.