Wins + Dingers

Tonight's HR Probability Board

November 08, 2026 · 18 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	vs usual	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	Caminero, Junior RHB · #4	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.04	-0%	14.8%	+578	15¢	12¢	360
2	Chourio, Jackson RHB · #1	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.04	-5%	13.7%	+629	14¢	11¢	272
3	Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #8	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+11%	13.7%	+633	14¢	11¢	133
4	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+11%	13.4%	+644	13¢	11¢	309
5	Bauers, Jake LHB · #2	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-10%	12.9%	+675	13¢	10¢	224
6	Contreras, William RHB · #4	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.04	-5%	12.2%	+722	12¢	9¢	349
7	Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #6	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-10%	11.3%	+783	11¢	9¢	224
8	Díaz, Yandy RHB · #1	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.04	-0%	11.2%	+794	11¢	9¢	365
9	Yelich, Christian LHB · #3	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-10%	11.2%	+797	11¢	9¢	226
10	Turang, Brice LHB · #5	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-10%	9.7%	+928	10¢	7¢	290
11	Hicks, Liam LHB · #5	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+11%	8.8%	+1031	9¢	7¢	341
12	DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #7	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.04	-1%	8.5%	+1079	8¢	6¢	161
13	Palacios, Richie LHB · #6	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+11%	8.5%	+1082	8¢	6¢	233
14	Pratt, Cooper RHB · #7	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.04	-5%	7.0%	+1327	7¢	5¢	140
15	Walls, Taylor LHB · #9	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+11%	6.9%	+1345	7¢	5¢	171
16	Hamilton, David LHB · #9	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-10%	6.3%	+1487	6¢	5¢	212
17	Frelick, Sal LHB · #8	MIL	Drew Rasmussen	x1.06	-11%	5.9%	+1598	6¢	4¢	226
18	Simpson, Chandler LHB · #3	MIL	Logan Henderson	x1.06	+10%	3.2%	+3055	3¢	2¢	348

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee Brewers	MIL	1.88	29%
ALL GAMES (1)		1.9

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "vs usual" compares tonight's modeled rate to the hitter's own season talent baseline -- it isolates what the matchup and ballpark/weather are doing to HIS normal night. ▲ +25% or more is an unusually favorable setup; ▼ -20% or worse is an unusually hostile one. A star can be elevated and a scrub suppressed on the same slate; this column is about the setup, not the player. "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.