Wins + Dingers

Box Office Tracker

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Domestic to date (2026-08-22)

$843M

Model forecast 2026-08-31

$890M

80% range

$881-900M

Claude (pre-reg 2026-08-09)

$850M

80%: $825-875M

1-day-ahead median |error|

Claude 4% Model 10%

13 graded days

Daily grosses

Date	Day	Gross	Claude D-1	Δ	Model D-1	Δ	Claude proj	Model proj	<900	900+	vs same day last wk	Cume
2026-07-31	Fri	$169.8M										$169.6M
2026-08-01	Sat	$101.5M										$271.1M
2026-08-02	Sun	$88.7M										$359.8M
2026-08-03	Mon	$47.1M										$406.9M
2026-08-04	Tue	$42.0M										$448.9M
2026-08-05	Wed	$32.7M										$481.6M
2026-08-06	Thu	$28.2M										$509.8M
2026-08-07	Fri	$43.0M									-75%	$552.8M
2026-08-08	Sat	$57.0M									-44%	$609.8M
2026-08-09	Sun	$45.0M									-49%	$654.8M
2026-08-10	Mon	$17.0M	$14.0M	+21%	$23.9M	-29%	$879M	$859M	80%	20%	-64%	$671.8M
2026-08-11	Tue	$20.0M	$18.2M	+10%	$18.2M	+10%	$888M	$887M	70%	30%	-52%	$691.8M
2026-08-12	Wed	$13.5M	$14.0M	-4%	$15.6M	-13%	$886M	$866M	75%	25%	-59%	$705.3M
2026-08-13	Thu	$11.3M	$12.6M	-10%	$12.5M	-10%	$882M	$864M	82%	18%	-60%	$716.6M
2026-08-14	Fri	$19.0M	$18.4M	+3%	$19.1M	-0%	$886M	$870M	79%	21%	-56%	$735.6M
2026-08-15	Sat	$29.3M	$29.4M	-0%	$26.2M	+12%	$885M	$886M	84%	16%	-49%	$764.9M
2026-08-16	Sun	$21.7M	$21.3M	+2%	$22.1M	-2%	$886M	$886M	87%	13%	-52%	$786.6M
2026-08-17	Mon	$7.5M	$7.4M	+2%	$8.4M	-11%	$887M	$885M	89%	11%	-56%	$794.1M
2026-08-18	Tue	$9.9M	$8.0M	+23%	$9.9M	-0%	$890M	$886M	84%	16%	-51%	$804.0M
2026-08-19	Wed	$6.5M	$5.8M	+12%	$6.8M	-4%	$891M	$886M	82%	18%	-52%	$810.5M
2026-08-20	Thu	$5.5M	$5.3M	+4%	$5.7M	-3%	$892M	$885M	82%	18%	-52%	$815.9M
2026-08-21	Fri	$9.8M	$9.8M	-0%	$9.5M	+3%	$892M	$887M	86%	14%	-48%	$825.7M
2026-08-22	Sat	$16.9M	$14.5M	+17%	$14.9M	+13%	$896M	$891M	74%	26%	-42%	$842.6M

Tomorrow -- one-day-ahead calls (graded when the actual lands)

Date	Day	Claude D-1	Model D-1
2026-08-23	Sun	$11.0M	$11.2M

The Odyssey

Domestic to date (2026-08-22)

$533M

Model forecast 2026-08-31

$568M

80% range

$564-573M

Claude (pre-reg 2026-08-10)

$565M

80%: $550-585M

1-day-ahead median |error|

Claude 8% Model 8%

13 graded days

Daily grosses

Date	Day	Gross	Claude D-1	Δ	Model D-1	Δ	Claude proj	Model proj	530-550	550-570	570+	vs same day last wk	Cume
2026-07-17	Fri	$51.0M											$51.6M
2026-07-18	Sat	$41.7M											$93.3M
2026-07-19	Sun	$30.8M											$124.1M
2026-07-20	Mon	$18.7M											$142.8M
2026-07-21	Tue	$21.5M											$164.3M
2026-07-22	Wed	$18.1M											$182.4M
2026-07-23	Thu	$17.6M											$200.0M
2026-07-24	Fri	$25.7M										-50%	$225.7M
2026-07-25	Sat	$34.6M										-17%	$260.2M
2026-07-26	Sun	$29.8M										-3%	$290.0M
2026-07-27	Mon	$14.7M										-21%	$304.7M
2026-07-28	Tue	$16.4M										-24%	$321.2M
2026-07-29	Wed	$13.6M										-25%	$334.8M
2026-07-30	Thu	$10.3M										-41%	$345.1M
2026-07-31	Fri	$14.2M										-45%	$359.3M
2026-08-01	Sat	$19.3M										-44%	$378.6M
2026-08-02	Sun	$17.6M										-41%	$396.2M
2026-08-03	Mon	$9.7M										-34%	$405.9M
2026-08-04	Tue	$8.8M										-46%	$414.7M
2026-08-05	Wed	$8.4M										-38%	$423.1M
2026-08-06	Thu	$7.2M										-31%	$430.3M
2026-08-07	Fri	$8.9M										-37%	$439.1M
2026-08-08	Sat	$12.4M										-36%	$451.6M
2026-08-09	Sun	$10.2M										-42%	$461.8M
2026-08-10	Mon	$5.2M	$6.8M	-24%	$7.5M	-31%	$547M	$579M	58%	37%	1%	-47%	$467.0M
2026-08-11	Tue	$5.6M	$4.7M	+19%	$6.9M	-18%	$553M	$576M	38%	57%	4%	-37%	$472.6M
2026-08-12	Wed	$4.9M	$4.9M	+1%	$6.5M	-24%	$553M	$572M	37%	59%	3%	-41%	$477.5M
2026-08-13	Thu	$4.4M	$4.2M	+5%	$5.6M	-21%	$554M	$570M	34%	63%	3%	-39%	$481.9M
2026-08-14	Fri	$6.5M	$5.7M	+14%	$6.9M	-5%	$560M	$569M	13%	75%	12%	-27%	$488.4M
2026-08-15	Sat	$9.3M	$9.1M	+2%	$9.7M	-4%	$560M	$568M	9%	81%	10%	-25%	$497.7M
2026-08-16	Sun	$7.4M	$7.5M	-1%	$7.9M	-6%	$560M	$567M	6%	87%	7%	-27%	$505.1M
2026-08-17	Mon	$3.7M	$4.1M	-11%	$4.0M	-8%	$559M	$566M	7%	89%	4%	-29%	$508.8M
2026-08-18	Tue	$4.0M	$3.7M	+8%	$4.3M	-7%	$560M	$565M	4%	92%	4%	-28%	$512.8M
2026-08-19	Wed	$3.5M	$3.6M	-3%	$3.8M	-9%	$560M	$565M	3%	94%	3%	-30%	$516.3M
2026-08-20	Thu	$3.3M	$3.0M	+9%	$3.4M	-4%	$560M	$564M	2%	96%	2%	-25%	$519.6M
2026-08-21	Fri	$5.1M	$4.7M	+7%	$5.0M	+1%	$561M	$565M	1%	97%	2%	-22%	$524.7M
2026-08-22	Sat	$8.1M	$6.8M	+18%	$7.3M	+10%	$564M	$568M	0%	95%	5%	-13%	$532.7M

Tomorrow -- one-day-ahead calls (graded when the actual lands)

Date	Day	Claude D-1	Model D-1
2026-08-23	Sun	$5.9M	$6.0M

Rumor Board

Unverified early reads scraped from trade coverage -- estimates, leaks, and in-progress numbers. Display only: nothing here touches the models, projections, or probabilities. The board wipes itself the moment finalized numbers land in the tables above.

No unconfirmed reads right now -- the board is clean.

Daily grosses pulled automatically (Box Office Mojo first, The-Numbers fallback; hand-verified overrides when both garble). The chart traces each forecaster's August-31 projection day by day -- gold is Claude-live (the frozen daily sheet marked to market by a fixed rule: weekday deviations apply fully to future weekdays, half-transfer to weekends until real weekend data arrives), blue is the momentum model, each recomputed on only that day's available data. Convergence means agreement; jumps mean that day's actual moved someone. The dashed gold horizontal is the pre-registered forecast, frozen forever. Daily grading is one-day-ahead: each morning's Claude D-1 and Model D-1 are what each forecaster said yesterday about today, on yesterday's data -- latest thinking, not first thinking. The frozen sheet is retired from daily display but still steers Claude-live's weekday shape. The table's outcome-window percentages come from the Claude-live projection with a mechanical band (12% of still-unearned dollars), so they move only when the data moves. Updated August 23, 2026 01:21 PM ET.