Wins + Dingers

Box Office Tracker

Spider-Man: Brand New Day

Domestic to date (2026-10-20)

$958M

Model forecast 2026-10-31

$960M

80% range

$960-960M

Claude (pre-reg 2026-08-09)

$850M

80%: $825-875M

Claude Sept pre-reg (read of 2026-08-26)

$946M

1-day-ahead median |error|

Claude 10% Model 19%

72 graded days

Daily grosses

Date	Day	Gross	Claude D-1	Δ	Model D-1	Δ	Claude proj	Model proj
2026-07-31	Fri	$169.8M						$169.5M
2026-08-01	Sat	$101.5M						$271.0M
2026-08-02	Sun	$88.7M						$359.8M
2026-08-03	Mon	$47.1M						$406.8M
2026-08-04	Tue	$42.0M						$448.8M
2026-08-05	Wed	$32.7M						$481.5M
2026-08-06	Thu	$28.2M						$509.7M
2026-08-07	Fri	$43.0M					-75%	$552.7M
2026-08-08	Sat	$57.0M					-44%	$609.7M
2026-08-09	Sun	$45.0M					-49%	$654.7M
2026-08-10	Mon	$17.0M	$14.0M	+21%	$23.9M	-29%	-64%	$671.7M
2026-08-11	Tue	$20.0M	$18.2M	+10%	$18.2M	+10%	-52%	$691.7M
2026-08-12	Wed	$13.5M	$14.0M	-4%	$15.6M	-13%	-59%	$705.2M
2026-08-13	Thu	$11.3M	$12.6M	-10%	$12.5M	-10%	-60%	$716.5M
2026-08-14	Fri	$19.0M	$18.4M	+3%	$19.1M	-0%	-56%	$735.5M
2026-08-15	Sat	$29.3M	$29.4M	-0%	$26.2M	+12%	-49%	$764.8M
2026-08-16	Sun	$21.7M	$21.3M	+2%	$22.1M	-2%	-52%	$786.5M
2026-08-17	Mon	$7.5M	$7.4M	+2%	$8.4M	-11%	-56%	$794.0M
2026-08-18	Tue	$9.9M	$8.0M	+23%	$9.9M	-0%	-51%	$803.9M
2026-08-19	Wed	$6.5M	$5.8M	+12%	$6.8M	-4%	-52%	$810.4M
2026-08-20	Thu	$5.5M	$5.3M	+4%	$5.7M	-3%	-52%	$815.9M
2026-08-21	Fri	$9.8M	$9.8M	+0%	$9.5M	+3%	-48%	$825.7M
2026-08-22	Sat	$16.9M	$14.5M	+17%	$14.9M	+13%	-42%	$842.6M
2026-08-23	Sun	$12.3M	$11.0M	+11%	$11.2M	+9%	-44%	$854.9M
2026-08-24	Mon	$3.5M	$4.3M	-19%	$4.1M	-14%	-53%	$858.4M
2026-08-25	Tue	$5.0M	$4.8M	+3%	$5.3M	-7%	-50%	$863.3M
2026-08-26	Wed	$3.1M	$3.5M	-11%	$3.5M	-10%	-52%	$866.5M
2026-08-27	Thu	$2.8M	$3.1M	-10%	$3.0M	-5%	-49%	$869.3M
2026-08-28	Fri	$5.5M	$6.5M	-14%	$5.3M	+4%	-44%	$874.8M
2026-08-29	Sat	$10.0M	$9.6M	+5%	$9.5M	+5%	-41%	$884.8M
2026-08-30	Sun	$7.0M	$7.0M	-0%	$6.9M	+1%	-43%	$891.8M
2026-08-31	Mon	$1.9M	$3.7M	-49%	$2.0M	-3%	-45%	$893.7M
2026-09-01	Tue	$2.7M			$2.8M	-5%	-46%	$896.4M
2026-09-02	Wed	$1.7M	$1.6M	+5%	$1.8M	-3%	-45%	$898.1M
2026-09-03	Thu	$1.6M			$1.6M	+3%	-42%	$899.7M
2026-09-04	Fri	$3.9M	$5.7M	-32%	$3.2M	+22%	-30%	$903.6M
2026-09-05	Sat	$7.0M	$8.0M	-12%	$5.8M	+21%	-30%	$910.6M
2026-09-06	Sun	$7.3M	$5.7M	+28%	$4.1M	+79%	+5%	$917.9M
2026-09-07	Mon	$5.5M	$5.8M	-4%	$1.2M	+348%	+189%	$923.5M
2026-09-08	Tue	$1.5M	$1.4M	+7%	$1.9M	-19%	-44%	$925.0M
2026-09-09	Wed	$1.0M	$1.0M	+0%	$1.2M	-17%	-42%	$926.0M
2026-09-10	Thu	$0.8M	$0.9M	-16%	$1.1M	-30%	-51%	$926.8M
2026-09-11	Fri	$2.0M	$2.5M	-20%	$2.7M	-26%	-48%	$928.8M
2026-09-12	Sat	$3.9M	$3.4M	+13%	$4.9M	-22%	-45%	$932.6M
2026-09-13	Sun	$2.6M	$2.8M	-7%	$5.1M	-50%	-65%	$935.2M
2026-09-14	Mon	$0.7M			$3.9M	-83%	-88%	$935.9M
2026-09-15	Tue	$0.9M			$1.1M	-13%	-39%	$936.8M
2026-09-16	Wed	$0.7M			$0.7M	-4%	-33%	$937.4M
2026-09-17	Thu	$0.6M			$0.6M	+0%	-30%	$938.0M
2026-09-18	Fri	$1.5M			$1.4M	+10%	-23%	$939.5M
2026-09-19	Sat	$2.9M			$2.8M	+4%	-24%	$942.5M
2026-09-20	Sun	$1.9M			$2.0M	-2%	-25%	$944.4M
2026-09-21	Mon	$0.6M			$0.5M	+20%	-8%	$945.0M
2026-09-22	Tue	$0.7M			$0.8M	-14%	-27%	$945.7M
2026-09-23	Wed	$0.5M			$0.6M	-15%	-28%	$946.2M
2026-09-24	Thu	$0.4M			$0.5M	-16%	-29%	$946.6M
2026-09-25	Fri	$1.0M			$1.3M	-23%	-35%	$947.6M
2026-09-26	Sat	$1.9M			$2.5M	-25%	-36%	$949.5M
2026-09-27	Sun	$1.2M			$1.6M	-28%	-39%	$950.6M
2026-09-28	Mon	$0.3M			$0.5M	-38%	-48%	$951.0M
2026-09-29	Tue	$0.4M			$0.6M	-23%	-35%	$951.4M
2026-09-30	Wed	$0.4M			$0.4M	-8%	-22%	$951.8M
2026-10-01	Thu	$0.3M			$0.3M	-25%	-36%	$952.0M
2026-10-02	Fri	$0.6M			$0.9M	-30%	-41%	$952.6M
2026-10-03	Sat	$1.2M			$1.6M	-27%	-38%	$953.8M
2026-10-04	Sun	$0.7M			$1.0M	-26%	-37%	$954.5M
2026-10-05	Mon	$0.2M			$0.3M	-25%	-37%	$954.7M
2026-10-06	Tue	$0.3M			$0.4M	-30%	-40%	$955.0M
2026-10-07	Wed	$0.2M			$0.3M	-35%	-45%	$955.2M
2026-10-08	Thu	$0.2M			$0.2M	-25%	-36%	$955.4M
2026-10-09	Fri	$0.4M			$0.5M	-28%	-39%	$955.7M
2026-10-10	Sat	$0.7M			$1.0M	-34%	-44%	$956.4M
2026-10-11	Sun	$0.5M			$0.6M	-19%	-31%	$956.9M
2026-10-12	Mon	$0.3M			$0.2M	+62%	+38%	$957.2M
2026-10-13	Tue	$0.2M			$0.2M	-22%	-26%	$957.4M
2026-10-14	Wed	$0.1M			$0.2M	-32%	-36%	$957.5M
2026-10-15	Thu	$0.1M			$0.2M	-43%	-46%	$957.6M
2026-10-16	Fri	$0.2M			$0.3M	-48%	-50%	$957.8M
2026-10-17	Sat	$0.3M			$0.6M	-50%	-53%	$958.1M
2026-10-18	Sun	$0.2M			$0.5M	-62%	-64%	$958.3M
2026-10-19	Mon	$0.1M			$0.3M	-81%	-82%	$958.3M
2026-10-20	Tue	$0.1M			$0.2M	-64%	-66%	$958.4M

Tomorrow -- one-day-ahead calls (graded when the actual lands)

Date	Day	Claude D-1	Model D-1
2026-10-21	Wed	--	$0.1M

Upcoming days -- model path (re-derived every run, not frozen)

Date	Day	Model est.	Proj. cume
2026-10-21	Wed	$0.1M	$958.5M
2026-10-22	Thu	$0.1M	$958.6M
2026-10-23	Fri	$0.2M	$958.8M
2026-10-24	Sat	$0.3M	$959.1M
2026-10-25	Sun	$0.2M	$959.2M
2026-10-26	Mon	$0.0M	$959.3M
2026-10-27	Tue	$0.1M	$959.3M
2026-10-28	Wed	$0.1M	$959.5M
2026-10-29	Thu	$0.1M	$959.5M
2026-10-30	Fri	$0.2M	$959.7M
2026-10-31	Sat	$0.3M	$960.0M

September book (resolves Sep 30) -- live Claude, fresh reasoning daily

STALE: last read used data through 2026-09-12; newer days have landed.

Sep 30 central (read of 2026-09-12)

$952M

<940	940-950	950-960	960-970	970+
5%	25%	40%	22%	8%

News scan:

No US re-release or extended-cut announced; Blu-ray/digital slated for Nov 17, no theatrical pull-forward.
National Cinema Weekend (Sep 5-6) was UK-only event at £4 tickets — zero domestic US impact confirmed.
No US discount cinema day announced by Cinema Foundation or major chains; editor note ruling stands (P≤5%).
Labor Day 4-day actuals ~$23.3M (Deadline/Rentrak); film crossed $900M on Sep 4, now at $932.6M anchored.
Film at 3,520 theaters wk6; screen count declining naturally; no Sony special-event announcement found.

Sep 13 Sun estimated via non-holiday Sat→Sun multiplier (~0.72× last Sat $3.85M = $2.77M). Tail (Sep 14–30) modeled with weekday decay ~$0.4–0.8M/day and weekend frames of ~$3.5–3.7M (wk9) and ~$2.4M (wk10), scaling ~40–45% WoW. No re-release, no US discount event, no screen-count shock found. Central lands ~$952M. Sigma widened modestly for correlated weekday regime risk and holiday-bump normalization uncertainty.

Read history

Data thru	Central	<940	940-950	950-960	960-970	970+
2026-09-12	$952M	5%	25%	40%	22%	8%
2026-09-11	$952M	12%	28%	32%	20%	8%
2026-09-10	$956M	6%	21%	38%	25%	10%
2026-09-09	$963M	8%	13%	22%	30%	27%
2026-09-08	$958M	3%	10%	35%	32%	20%
2026-09-07	$957M	9%	16%	32%	28%	15%
2026-09-06	$961M	4%	12%	31%	31%	22%
2026-09-05	$944M	25%	30%	25%	13%	8%
2026-09-04	$948M	25%	31%	26%	11%	7%
2026-09-03	$958M	17%	26%	24%	19%	14%
2026-09-02	$947M	20%	30%	25%	14%	11%
2026-09-01	$949M	20%	26%	24%	17%	13%
2026-08-31	$946M	26%	27%	23%	14%	10%
2026-08-30	$933M	52%	26%	12%	6%	4%

The Odyssey

Domestic to date (2026-10-23)

$625M

Model forecast 2026-10-31

$626M

80% range

$626-626M

Claude (pre-reg 2026-08-10)

$565M

80%: $550-585M

1-day-ahead median |error|

Claude 9% Model 26%

75 graded days

Daily grosses

Date	Day	Gross	Claude D-1	Δ	Model D-1	Δ	Claude proj	Model proj
2026-07-17	Fri	$51.0M						$51.6M
2026-07-18	Sat	$41.7M						$93.4M
2026-07-19	Sun	$30.8M						$124.1M
2026-07-20	Mon	$18.7M						$142.8M
2026-07-21	Tue	$21.5M						$164.3M
2026-07-22	Wed	$18.1M						$182.4M
2026-07-23	Thu	$17.6M						$200.0M
2026-07-24	Fri	$25.7M					-50%	$225.7M
2026-07-25	Sat	$34.6M					-17%	$260.3M
2026-07-26	Sun	$29.8M					-3%	$290.0M
2026-07-27	Mon	$14.7M					-21%	$304.8M
2026-07-28	Tue	$16.4M					-24%	$321.2M
2026-07-29	Wed	$13.6M					-25%	$334.8M
2026-07-30	Thu	$10.3M					-41%	$345.2M
2026-07-31	Fri	$14.2M					-45%	$359.3M
2026-08-01	Sat	$19.3M					-44%	$378.6M
2026-08-02	Sun	$17.6M					-41%	$396.2M
2026-08-03	Mon	$9.7M					-34%	$405.9M
2026-08-04	Tue	$8.8M					-46%	$414.7M
2026-08-05	Wed	$8.4M					-38%	$423.1M
2026-08-06	Thu	$7.2M					-31%	$430.3M
2026-08-07	Fri	$8.9M					-37%	$439.2M
2026-08-08	Sat	$12.4M					-36%	$451.6M
2026-08-09	Sun	$10.2M					-42%	$461.8M
2026-08-10	Mon	$5.2M	$6.8M	-24%	$7.5M	-31%	-47%	$467.0M
2026-08-11	Tue	$5.6M	$4.7M	+19%	$6.9M	-18%	-37%	$472.6M
2026-08-12	Wed	$4.9M	$4.9M	+1%	$6.5M	-24%	-41%	$477.5M
2026-08-13	Thu	$4.4M	$4.2M	+5%	$5.6M	-21%	-39%	$481.9M
2026-08-14	Fri	$6.5M	$5.7M	+14%	$6.9M	-5%	-27%	$488.4M
2026-08-15	Sat	$9.3M	$9.1M	+2%	$9.7M	-4%	-25%	$497.7M
2026-08-16	Sun	$7.4M	$7.5M	-1%	$7.9M	-6%	-27%	$505.1M
2026-08-17	Mon	$3.7M	$4.1M	-11%	$4.0M	-8%	-29%	$508.8M
2026-08-18	Tue	$4.0M	$3.7M	+8%	$4.3M	-7%	-28%	$512.8M
2026-08-19	Wed	$3.5M	$3.6M	-3%	$3.8M	-9%	-30%	$516.3M
2026-08-20	Thu	$3.3M	$3.0M	+9%	$3.4M	-4%	-25%	$519.6M
2026-08-21	Fri	$5.1M	$4.7M	+7%	$5.0M	+1%	-22%	$524.7M
2026-08-22	Sat	$8.1M	$6.8M	+19%	$7.3M	+11%	-13%	$532.8M
2026-08-23	Sun	$6.5M	$5.9M	+10%	$6.0M	+8%	-12%	$539.3M
2026-08-24	Mon	$2.6M	$2.9M	-10%	$3.1M	-17%	-29%	$541.9M
2026-08-25	Tue	$3.0M	$2.6M	+18%	$3.4M	-11%	-25%	$544.9M
2026-08-26	Wed	$2.3M	$2.5M	-9%	$3.0M	-22%	-34%	$547.3M
2026-08-27	Thu	$2.3M	$2.1M	+8%	$2.8M	-17%	-30%	$549.6M
2026-08-28	Fri	$3.8M	$4.1M	-7%	$4.3M	-13%	-26%	$553.3M
2026-08-29	Sat	$5.9M	$5.7M	+3%	$6.9M	-15%	-28%	$559.2M
2026-08-30	Sun	$4.7M	$4.6M	+2%	$5.5M	-16%	-28%	$563.9M
2026-08-31	Mon	$1.9M	$2.2M	-12%	$2.2M	-14%	-26%	$565.8M
2026-09-01	Tue	$2.3M			$2.6M	-12%	-25%	$568.1M
2026-09-02	Wed	$1.8M			$2.0M	-6%	-20%	$569.9M
2026-09-03	Thu	$1.9M			$2.0M	-5%	-19%	$571.8M
2026-09-04	Fri	$3.1M			$3.2M	-4%	-18%	$574.9M
2026-09-05	Sat	$4.8M			$5.0M	-4%	-18%	$579.7M
2026-09-06	Sun	$5.2M			$4.0M	+31%	+11%	$584.9M
2026-09-07	Mon	$4.1M			$1.7M	+145%	+114%	$589.0M
2026-09-08	Tue	$1.6M			$2.1M	-23%	-29%	$590.6M
2026-09-09	Wed	$1.3M			$1.7M	-26%	-32%	$591.8M
2026-09-10	Thu	$1.3M			$1.7M	-27%	-33%	$593.1M
2026-09-11	Fri	$2.1M			$2.9M	-27%	-33%	$595.2M
2026-09-12	Sat	$3.1M			$4.4M	-30%	-35%	$598.3M
2026-09-13	Sun	$2.4M			$4.8M	-49%	-53%	$600.7M
2026-09-14	Mon	$1.0M			$3.8M	-73%	-75%	$601.7M
2026-09-15	Tue	$1.2M			$1.5M	-19%	-25%	$602.9M
2026-09-16	Wed	$1.1M			$1.2M	-3%	-10%	$604.1M
2026-09-17	Thu	$0.8M			$1.2M	-32%	-36%	$604.9M
2026-09-18	Fri	$1.4M			$1.9M	-30%	-35%	$606.2M
2026-09-19	Sat	$2.0M			$2.9M	-31%	-35%	$608.2M
2026-09-20	Sun	$1.6M			$2.3M	-30%	-34%	$609.8M
2026-09-21	Mon	$0.8M			$1.0M	-20%	-25%	$610.6M
2026-09-22	Tue	$0.8M			$1.1M	-28%	-33%	$611.4M
2026-09-23	Wed	$0.7M			$1.1M	-31%	-36%	$612.1M
2026-09-24	Thu	$0.7M			$0.7M	-6%	-12%	$612.8M
2026-09-25	Fri	$1.0M			$1.3M	-17%	-23%	$613.9M
2026-09-26	Sat	$1.5M			$1.9M	-18%	-23%	$615.4M
2026-09-27	Sun	$1.2M			$1.5M	-18%	-23%	$616.6M
2026-09-28	Mon	$0.7M			$0.7M	-3%	-9%	$617.3M
2026-09-29	Tue	$0.8M			$0.8M	+1%	-5%	$618.1M
2026-09-30	Wed	$0.9M			$0.7M	+26%	+20%	$619.0M
2026-10-01	Thu	$0.2M			$0.7M	-70%	-72%	$619.2M
2026-10-02	Fri	$0.3M			$1.0M	-67%	-68%	$619.5M
2026-10-03	Sat	$0.6M			$1.5M	-61%	-63%	$620.1M
2026-10-04	Sun	$0.4M			$1.2M	-65%	-67%	$620.5M
2026-10-05	Mon	$0.1M			$0.7M	-81%	-82%	$620.6M
2026-10-06	Tue	$0.2M			$0.7M	-77%	-78%	$620.8M
2026-10-07	Wed	$0.1M			$0.8M	-86%	-86%	$620.9M
2026-10-08	Thu	$0.1M			$0.2M	-46%	-49%	$621.0M
2026-10-09	Fri	$0.5M			$0.3M	+66%	+58%	$621.5M
2026-10-10	Sat	$0.8M			$0.5M	+54%	+47%	$622.3M
2026-10-11	Sun	$0.8M			$0.4M	+109%	+98%	$623.1M
2026-10-12	Mon	$0.4M			$0.1M	+267%	+249%	$623.6M
2026-10-13	Tue	$0.4M			$0.2M	+128%	+117%	$623.9M
2026-10-14	Wed	$0.3M			$0.1M	+191%	+176%	$624.2M
2026-10-15	Thu	$0.1M			$0.1M	+10%	+5%	$624.3M
2026-10-16	Fri	$0.1M			$0.5M	-71%	-73%	$624.5M
2026-10-17	Sat	$0.2M			$0.8M	-69%	-70%	$624.7M
2026-10-18	Sun	$0.2M			$0.8M	-78%	-79%	$624.9M
2026-10-19	Mon	$0.1M			$0.4M	-86%	-87%	$625.0M
2026-10-20	Tue	$0.1M			$0.3M	-78%	-79%	$625.0M
2026-10-21	Wed	$0.1M			$0.3M	-80%	-81%	$625.1M
2026-10-22	Thu	$0.1M			$0.1M	-45%	-47%	$625.2M
2026-10-23	Fri	$0.1M			$0.1M	-50%	-53%	$625.2M

Tomorrow -- one-day-ahead calls (graded when the actual lands)

Date	Day	Claude D-1	Model D-1
2026-10-24	Sat	--	$0.2M

Upcoming days -- model path (re-derived every run, not frozen)

Date	Day	Model est.	Proj. cume
2026-10-24	Sat	$0.2M	$625.5M
2026-10-25	Sun	$0.2M	$625.6M
2026-10-26	Mon	$0.1M	$625.7M
2026-10-27	Tue	$0.1M	$625.7M
2026-10-28	Wed	$0.1M	$625.8M
2026-10-29	Thu	$0.1M	$625.9M
2026-10-30	Fri	$0.1M	$625.9M
2026-10-31	Sat	$0.2M	$626.1M

Rumor Board

Unverified early reads scraped from trade coverage -- estimates, leaks, and in-progress numbers. Display only: nothing here touches the models, projections, or probabilities. The board wipes itself the moment finalized numbers land in the tables above.

Seen	Film	What was said	Source
10-24T11:01	Spider-Man	Meanwhile, Sony’s Spider-Man: Brand New Day is poised to take out Star Wars: Force Awakens ($936.6M) as the highest grossing movie ever at the North American box office.	Box Office: 'Practical Magic 2'

Daily grosses pulled automatically (Box Office Mojo first, The-Numbers fallback; hand-verified overrides when both garble). The chart traces each forecaster's August-31 projection day by day -- gold is Claude-live (the frozen daily sheet marked to market by a fixed rule: weekday deviations apply fully to future weekdays, half-transfer to weekends until real weekend data arrives), blue is the momentum model, each recomputed on only that day's available data. Convergence means agreement; jumps mean that day's actual moved someone. The dashed gold horizontal is the pre-registered forecast, frozen forever. Daily grading is one-day-ahead: each morning's Claude D-1 and Model D-1 are what each forecaster said yesterday about today, on yesterday's data -- latest thinking, not first thinking. The frozen sheet is retired from daily display but still steers Claude-live's weekday shape. The table's outcome-window percentages come from the Claude-live projection with a mechanical band (12% of still-unearned dollars), so they move only when the data moves. Updated October 24, 2026 11:01 AM ET.