Home line is the current spread (negative = home favored). Picks are valid at these lines only.
Our live record: 7-9 (43.8%)
Every bet the system fired, graded against the closing result at the line it was picked. Brown's long-run target was 55%; full juice needs 52.4% to break even.
Week
Game
Pick (line)
Signal
Result
Wk 9
JAX @ BAL
BAL (+10.0)
+5
LOSS
Wk 8
BAL @ BUF
BAL (-3.0)
-3
LOSS
Wk 8
TEN @ CIN
TEN (-10.5)
-4
WIN
Wk 8
MIN @ DET
DET (-3.5)
+3
WIN
Wk 8
PHI @ WAS
PHI (-5.5)
-4
LOSS
Wk 8
CHI @ SEA
SEA (-3.0)
+3
LOSS
Wk 7
TB @ CAR
TB (-3.5)
-3
WIN
Wk 7
IND @ MIN
IND (-6.5)
-3
WIN
Wk 7
MIA @ NYJ
MIA (-4.5)
-4
WIN
Wk 7
KC @ SEA
SEA (-2.5)
+3
WIN
Wk 6
SEA @ DEN
SEA (+2.5)
-5
LOSS
Wk 6
TEN @ IND
TEN (-7.0)
-3
WIN
Wk 6
LAC @ KC
LAC (-8.5)
-3
LOSS
Wk 5
MIN @ NO
NO (+1.5)
+3
LOSS
Wk 2
CIN @ HOU
HOU (-2.5)
+3
LOSS
Wk 2
LV @ LAC
LAC (-6.5)
+3
LOSS
The system (Aaron Brown, 2006 -- implemented verbatim)
Three factors from public data, scored per game: 1. Last-game turnovers: +1 to a team with net giveaways in its last
game, −1 with net takeaways. Turnovers are mostly luck; last week's
sloppy team is underrated, last week's opportunist is overrated. 2. Season-to-date covers: +1 to a team that has covered less often
than not, −1 to a chronic coverer. Books shade lines against popular
winners so their fans lose slowly. 3. Line movement: +1 to the team the market has moved against since
the line first posted. Bettors over-react to news.
Home total minus away total: +3 or more, bet home; −3 or less, bet
away; anything between, pass. Historical record as published by Brown:
522-414 (55.8%) over 2006-2016, unmodified. This page runs those exact
rules on live data -- no additions, no tuning. Original write-up:
eraider.com/nfl-picks.
Updated November 08, 2026 02:01 AM ET. A 2006
system running unmodified on 2026 data, for demonstration and tracking --
not betting advice. Its author would be the first to tell you past
performance guarantees nothing.