Wins + Dingers
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NFL 5-Factor SystemLOCKED

Season 2026, Week 3 (locked) -- 0 bets, 16 passes

GameHome lineLGT h/aSTDC h/aMove h/aTotalPick
ATL @ GB-5.5+0/+0+1/+11/0+1PASS
LAC @ BUF-7.0+0/+0-1/+10/0-2PASS
CAR @ CLE+2.5+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
NYJ @ DET-6.5+0/+0+1/-10/0+2PASS
HOU @ IND+3.0+0/+0+0/+11/0+0PASS
NE @ JAX-3.0+0/+0+0/-10/0+1PASS
KC @ MIA+11.5+0/+0+1/+00/0+1PASS
TEN @ NYG-2.5+0/+0+0/+01/0+1PASS
CIN @ PIT+3.5+0/+0+0/-10/0+1PASS
SEA @ WAS+7.0+0/+0+0/-10/0+1PASS
ARI @ SF-8.5+0/+0-1/+00/0-1PASS
MIN @ TB+1.5+0/+0+1/-10/0+2PASS
BAL @ DAL+3.5+0/+0+0/+01/0+1PASS
LV @ NO-3.0+0/+0-1/-10/0+0PASS
LA @ DEN+2.5+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
PHI @ CHI+4.5+0/+0+0/+11/0+0PASS
Home line is the current spread (negative = home favored). Picks are valid at these lines only.

Our live record: 0-2 (0.0%)

Every bet the system fired, graded against the closing result at the line it was picked. Brown's long-run target was 55%; full juice needs 52.4% to break even.
WeekGamePick (line)SignalResult
Wk 2CIN @ HOUHOU (-2.5)+3LOSS
Wk 2LV @ LACLAC (-6.5)+3LOSS

The system (Aaron Brown, 2006 -- implemented verbatim)

Three factors from public data, scored per game:
1. Last-game turnovers: +1 to a team with net giveaways in its last game, −1 with net takeaways. Turnovers are mostly luck; last week's sloppy team is underrated, last week's opportunist is overrated.
2. Season-to-date covers: +1 to a team that has covered less often than not, −1 to a chronic coverer. Books shade lines against popular winners so their fans lose slowly.
3. Line movement: +1 to the team the market has moved against since the line first posted. Bettors over-react to news.

Home total minus away total: +3 or more, bet home; −3 or less, bet away; anything between, pass. Historical record as published by Brown: 522-414 (55.8%) over 2006-2016, unmodified. This page runs those exact rules on live data -- no additions, no tuning. Original write-up: eraider.com/nfl-picks.
Updated September 23, 2026 11:01 PM ET. A 2006 system running unmodified on 2026 data, for demonstration and tracking -- not betting advice. Its author would be the first to tell you past performance guarantees nothing.