Wins + Dingers
HR Board Results NFL System

NFL 5-Factor System

Season 2026, Week 1 (locked) -- 0 bets, 16 passes

GameHome lineLGT h/aSTDC h/aMove h/aTotalPick
NE @ SEA+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
SF @ LA+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
CHI @ CAR+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
TB @ CIN+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
NO @ DET+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
BUF @ HOU+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
BAL @ IND+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
CLE @ JAX+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
ATL @ PIT+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
NYJ @ TEN+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
ARI @ LAC+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
MIA @ LV+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
GB @ MIN+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
WAS @ PHI+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
DAL @ NYG+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
DEN @ KC+0/+0+0/+00/0+0PASS
Home line is the current spread (negative = home favored). Picks are valid at these lines only.

The system (Aaron Brown, 2006 -- implemented verbatim)

Three factors from public data, scored per game:
1. Last-game turnovers: +1 to a team with net giveaways in its last game, −1 with net takeaways. Turnovers are mostly luck; last week's sloppy team is underrated, last week's opportunist is overrated.
2. Season-to-date covers: +1 to a team that has covered less often than not, −1 to a chronic coverer. Books shade lines against popular winners so their fans lose slowly.
3. Line movement: +1 to the team the market has moved against since the line first posted. Bettors over-react to news.

Home total minus away total: +3 or more, bet home; −3 or less, bet away; anything between, pass. Historical record as published by Brown: 522-414 (55.8%) over 2006-2016, unmodified. This page runs those exact rules on live data -- no additions, no tuning. Original write-up: eraider.com/nfl-picks.
Updated August 08, 2026 06:59 PM ET. A 2006 system running unmodified on 2026 data, for demonstration and tracking -- not betting advice. Its author would be the first to tell you past performance guarantees nothing.