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Tonight's HR Probability Board

October 23, 2026 · 18 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances
#PlayerPark Opposing SPEnv vs usual P(HR)Fair oddsFair ¢ Bid ≤BBE
1Chourio, Jackson RHB · #1MILNick Martinezx1.04+6%14.2%+60214¢11¢272
2Bauers, Jake LHB · #2MILNick Martinezx1.06+15%14.2%+60614¢11¢224
3Caminero, Junior RHB · #4MILJacob Misiorowskix1.04▼ -22%13.3%+65213¢10¢360
4Contreras, William RHB · #4MILNick Martinezx1.04+6%12.7%+68913¢10¢349
5Mitchell, Garrett LHB · #6MILNick Martinezx1.06+14%12.6%+69613¢10¢224
6Yelich, Christian LHB · #3MILNick Martinezx1.06+14%12.3%+71512¢10¢226
7Mesa Jr., Victor LHB · #7MILJacob Misiorowskix1.06▼ -32%11.2%+79611¢9¢133
8Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2MILJacob Misiorowskix1.06▼ -32%11.1%+80311¢9¢309
9Turang, Brice LHB · #5MILNick Martinezx1.06+15%10.8%+82911¢8¢290
10Díaz, Yandy RHB · #1MILJacob Misiorowskix1.04▼ -22%10.1%+88810¢8¢365
11DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #6MILJacob Misiorowskix1.04▼ -23%7.7%+11978¢6¢161
12Pratt, Cooper RHB · #7MILNick Martinezx1.04+6%7.3%+12627¢6¢140
13Hicks, Liam LHB · #5MILJacob Misiorowskix1.06▼ -33%7.1%+13037¢5¢341
14Hamilton, David LHB · #9MILNick Martinezx1.06+15%7.1%+13127¢5¢212
15Frelick, Sal LHB · #8MILNick Martinezx1.06+15%6.6%+14137¢5¢226
16Walls, Taylor LHB · #9MILJacob Misiorowskix1.06▼ -33%5.4%+17485¢4¢171
17Williamson, Ben RHB · #8MILJacob Misiorowskix1.04▼ -23%4.8%+19705¢3¢108
18Simpson, Chandler LHB · #3MILJacob Misiorowskix1.06▼ -34%2.6%+37913¢2¢348

Game HR totals

GameParkExp. HRP(3+ HR)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Milwaukee BrewersMIL1.7927%
ALL GAMES (1)1.8
Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.
How to read it: "vs usual" compares tonight's modeled rate to the hitter's own season talent baseline -- it isolates what the matchup and ballpark/weather are doing to HIS normal night. ▲ +25% or more is an unusually favorable setup; ▼ -20% or worse is an unusually hostile one. A star can be elevated and a scrub suppressed on the same slate; this column is about the setup, not the player. "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.