Wins + Dingers

Tonight's HR Probability Board

August 23, 2026 · 207 hitters in posted lineups · model chain: Statcast talent → starter matchup → park × temp × wind → lineup-slot plate appearances

#	Player	Park	Opposing SP	Env	P(HR)	Fair odds	Fair ¢	Bid ≤	BBE
1	Schwarber, Kyle LHB · #1	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.26	22.5%	+344	23¢	18¢	169
2	Rice, Ben LHB · #2	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	22.5%	+345	22¢	18¢	217
3	García Jr., Luis LHB · #3	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	22.1%	+352	22¢	18¢	292
4	Lowe, Nathaniel LHB · #4	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	22.1%	+353	22¢	18¢	197
5	Walker, Jordan RHB · #3	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	21.5%	+364	22¢	17¢	101
6	Genao, Angel LHB · #5	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	21.1%	+375	21¢	17¢	37
7	Basallo, Samuel LHB · #4	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	21.0%	+376	21¢	17¢	162
8	Harper, Bryce LHB · #3	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.26	20.9%	+379	21¢	17¢	225
9	Martínez, Angel LHB · #7	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	19.9%	+403	20¢	16¢	144
10	DeLauter, Chase LHB · #2	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	19.7%	+409	20¢	16¢	239
11	Adell, Jo RHB · #3	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.42	19.1%	+422	19¢	15¢	248
12	Alvarez, Yordan LHB · #2	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.06	18.6%	+436	19¢	15¢	108
13	Merrill, Jackson LHB · #5	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.98	18.2%	+450	18¢	14¢	263
14	Grisham, Trent LHB · #1	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	18.1%	+453	18¢	14¢	219
15	Buxton, Byron RHB · #2	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.99	17.9%	+458	18¢	14¢	192
16	Murakami, Munetaka LHB · #2	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	17.8%	+463	18¢	14¢	140
17	Caminero, Junior RHB · #3	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.12	17.5%	+470	18¢	14¢	289
18	Alonso, Pete RHB · #2	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.12	17.0%	+488	17¢	13¢	245
19	Aranda, Jonathan LHB · #2	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	16.8%	+496	17¢	13¢	262
20	Moniak, Mickey LHB · #4	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.39	16.3%	+515	16¢	13¢	39
21	Vargas, Miguel RHB · #3	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.08	16.2%	+516	16¢	13¢	260
22	Marsh, Brandon LHB · #5	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.26	16.0%	+526	16¢	13¢	263
23	Báez, Joshua RHB · #5	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	15.8%	+531	16¢	12¢	10
24	Tatis Jr., Fernando RHB · #1	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.99	15.7%	+539	16¢	12¢	317
25	Jordan, Blaze RHB · #6	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	15.2%	+557	15¢	12¢	56
26	Burleson, Alec LHB · #4	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.26	15.2%	+559	15¢	12¢	131
27	Henderson, Gunnar LHB · #3	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	15.0%	+565	15¢	12¢	264
28	Okamoto, Kazuma RHB · #5	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	14.9%	+572	15¢	12¢	82
29	Contreras, Willson RHB · #4	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	14.6%	+583	15¢	12¢	75
30	Urías, Ramón RHB · #8	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	14.5%	+589	15¢	11¢	12
31	Castro, Willi RHB · #3	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	14.4%	+592	14¢	11¢	101
32	Hedges, Austin RHB · #8	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.42	14.4%	+595	14¢	11¢	67
33	Trout, Mike RHB · #2	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.00	14.4%	+595	14¢	11¢	194
34	Norby, Connor RHB · #5	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	14.3%	+600	14¢	11¢	44
35	Cowser, Colton LHB · #8	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	14.2%	+602	14¢	11¢	154
36	Crow-Armstrong, Pete LHB · #1	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.92	14.2%	+606	14¢	11¢	237
37	Clemens, Kody LHB · #4	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.98	14.1%	+611	14¢	11¢	237
38	Jones, Spencer LHB · #6	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	14.0%	+613	14¢	11¢	75
39	Bazzana, Travis LHB · #6	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	14.0%	+614	14¢	11¢	194
40	McCarthy, Jake LHB · #1	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.39	14.0%	+616	14¢	11¢	91
41	Chisholm Jr., Jazz LHB · #7	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	13.8%	+627	14¢	11¢	195
42	Stott, Bryson LHB · #4	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.26	13.6%	+633	14¢	11¢	276
43	Abreu, Wilyer LHB · #3	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.96	13.6%	+636	14¢	11¢	116
44	Wetherholt, JJ LHB · #1	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.26	13.5%	+640	14¢	11¢	145
45	Beavers, Dylan LHB · #6	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	13.5%	+643	13¢	11¢	127
46	Holliday, Jackson LHB · #1	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	13.4%	+648	13¢	10¢	133
47	Ortiz, Abimelec LHB · #2	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	13.4%	+648	13¢	10¢	42
48	Ritter, Ryan RHB · #8	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	13.2%	+659	13¢	10¢	0
49	Carrigg, Cole RHB · #2	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	13.1%	+665	13¢	10¢	71
50	Bellinger, Cody LHB · #4	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	13.0%	+669	13¢	10¢	195
51	Lile, Daylen LHB · #1	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	13.0%	+670	13¢	10¢	291
52	Suzuki, Seiya RHB · #2	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.93	13.0%	+671	13¢	10¢	216
53	Ballesteros, Moisés LHB · #3	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.01	12.9%	+674	13¢	10¢	144
54	Bericoto, Victor RHB · #5	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	12.8%	+680	13¢	10¢	30
55	Tovar, Ezequiel RHB · #9	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	12.8%	+681	13¢	10¢	76
56	France, Ty RHB · #4	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.99	12.8%	+683	13¢	10¢	182
57	Lowe, Josh LHB · #5	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.01	12.7%	+688	13¢	10¢	141
58	Sosa, Edmundo RHB · #8	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.25	12.7%	+688	13¢	10¢	74
59	Smith, Cam RHB · #8	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	12.6%	+691	13¢	10¢	80
60	Bell, Josh LHB · #3	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.98	12.6%	+692	13¢	10¢	236
61	Hernández, Heriberto RHB · #3	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	12.4%	+704	12¢	10¢	77
62	White, Tommy RHB · #5	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	12.4%	+708	12¢	10¢	60
63	Díaz, Yandy RHB · #1	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.12	12.2%	+717	12¢	10¢	296
64	Carroll, Corbin LHB · #2	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.02	12.2%	+718	12¢	10¢	113
65	Lindor, Francisco RHB · #1	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	12.2%	+718	12¢	10¢	72
66	Benge, Carson LHB · #3	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.07	12.2%	+723	12¢	9¢	85
67	Moreno, Gabriel RHB · #3	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	12.1%	+724	12¢	9¢	88
68	Machado, Manny RHB · #3	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.99	12.0%	+731	12¢	9¢	268
69	Lewis, Royce RHB · #5	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.99	12.0%	+735	12¢	9¢	180
70	Montgomery, Colson LHB · #6	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	11.9%	+737	12¢	9¢	188
71	Benintendi, Andrew LHB · #4	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	11.9%	+738	12¢	9¢	232
72	Adames, Willy RHB · #3	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	11.9%	+738	12¢	9¢	81
73	Beck, Jordan RHB · #6	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.42	11.9%	+739	12¢	9¢	36
74	Neto, Zach RHB · #1	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.00	11.9%	+742	12¢	9¢	232
75	Sheets, Gavin LHB · #7	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.98	11.9%	+743	12¢	9¢	220
76	Campusano, Luis RHB · #6	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.99	11.6%	+763	12¢	9¢	80
77	Walker, Christian RHB · #6	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	11.5%	+767	12¢	9¢	74
78	Turner, Trea RHB · #2	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.25	11.5%	+766	12¢	9¢	269
79	Herrera, Iván RHB · #2	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	11.5%	+767	12¢	9¢	116
80	Chaparro, Andrés RHB · #7	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.92	11.5%	+770	11¢	9¢	25
81	Encarnacion-Strand, Christian RHB · #7	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.12	11.5%	+770	11¢	9¢	46
82	Robert Jr., Luis RHB · #4	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	11.4%	+775	11¢	9¢	36
83	Cameron, Daz RHB · #7	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	11.3%	+781	11¢	9¢	7
84	Valencia, Eduardo RHB · #4	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	11.3%	+784	11¢	9¢	17
85	Muncy, Max RHB · #6	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	11.3%	+787	11¢	9¢	79
86	Basabe, Osleivis RHB · #1	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	11.2%	+793	11¢	9¢	20
87	Gelof, Zack RHB · #3	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	11.2%	+796	11¢	9¢	142
88	Monasterio, Andruw RHB · #7	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	11.1%	+800	11¢	9¢	70
89	Cortes, Carlos LHB · #2	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.06	10.9%	+817	11¢	8¢	206
90	De La Cruz, Bryan RHB · #9	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.25	10.9%	+817	11¢	8¢	15
91	Arenado, Nolan RHB · #5	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	10.8%	+823	11¢	8¢	85
92	Wells, Austin LHB · #8	NYY	José Soriano	x1.30	10.8%	+824	11¢	8¢	133
93	Campero, Gustavo LHB · #6	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.01	10.8%	+828	11¢	8¢	0
94	Guerrero Jr., Vladimir RHB · #2	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	10.8%	+829	11¢	8¢	87
95	Bichette, Bo RHB · #2	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	10.8%	+829	11¢	8¢	111
96	Devers, Rafael LHB · #2	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.96	10.8%	+830	11¢	8¢	117
97	Lombard Jr., George RHB · #5	NYY	José Soriano	x1.13	10.8%	+830	11¢	8¢	35
98	Happ, Ian LHB · #5	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.92	10.7%	+831	11¢	8¢	218
99	Tawa, Tim RHB · #6	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	10.7%	+832	11¢	8¢	40
100	Witt Jr., Bobby RHB · #2	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.76	10.6%	+842	11¢	8¢	250
101	Paredes, Isaac RHB · #3	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	10.6%	+847	11¢	8¢	94
102	Jones, Jahmai RHB · #1	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	10.5%	+850	11¢	8¢	63
103	Butler, Lawrence LHB · #4	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.06	10.5%	+854	10¢	8¢	183
104	Knizner, Andrew RHB · #7	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	10.4%	+863	10¢	8¢	7
105	Bateman, Brett LHB · #1	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.30	10.3%	+866	10¢	8¢	18
106	Eldridge, Bryce LHB · #4	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.96	10.3%	+870	10¢	8¢	65
107	Lopez, Otto RHB · #1	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	10.3%	+871	10¢	8¢	106
108	Hicks, Liam LHB · #4	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	10.2%	+878	10¢	8¢	287
109	Crews, Dylan RHB · #3	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.92	10.2%	+880	10¢	8¢	142
110	Antonacci, Sam LHB · #1	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	10.2%	+880	10¢	8¢	246
111	Vargas, Ildemaro RHB · #1	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	10.2%	+882	10¢	8¢	120
112	Sullivan, Brett LHB · #7	COL	Foster Griffin	x1.39	10.2%	+883	10¢	8¢	37
113	Peña, Jeremy RHB · #1	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	10.0%	+905	10¢	8¢	48
114	Ewing, A.J. LHB · #8	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.07	9.8%	+915	10¢	8¢	59
115	Rocchio, Brayan LHB · #9	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	9.8%	+916	10¢	8¢	250
116	Realmuto, J.T. RHB · #6	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.25	9.6%	+938	10¢	7¢	184
117	Perez, Salvador RHB · #4	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.76	9.6%	+940	10¢	7¢	267
118	Springer, George RHB · #4	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	9.6%	+944	10¢	7¢	86
119	Grissom, Vaughn RHB · #4	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.00	9.3%	+973	9¢	7¢	151
120	Wagaman, Eric RHB · #5	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	9.3%	+979	9¢	7¢	26
121	Lawlar, Jordan RHB · #7	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	9.2%	+985	9¢	7¢	18
122	Culpepper, Kaelen RHB · #9	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.99	9.2%	+988	9¢	7¢	17
123	Rafaela, Ceddanne RHB · #2	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	9.2%	+993	9¢	7¢	92
124	Cox, Jonah RHB · #8	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	9.1%	+1001	9¢	7¢	15
125	McAdoo, Charles RHB · #8	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	9.1%	+1004	9¢	7¢	17
126	Siri, Jose RHB · #7	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.00	9.0%	+1006	9¢	7¢	52
127	Semien, Marcus RHB · #7	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	9.0%	+1009	9¢	7¢	75
128	Taveras, Leody LHB · #9	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.22	9.0%	+1013	9¢	7¢	183
129	Altuve, Jose RHB · #4	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	8.9%	+1022	9¢	7¢	71
130	Busch, Michael LHB · #3	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.92	8.9%	+1024	9¢	7¢	253
131	Cronenworth, Jake LHB · #2	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.98	8.9%	+1026	9¢	7¢	148
132	Torkelson, Spencer RHB · #5	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	8.9%	+1029	9¢	7¢	80
133	Mullins, Cedric LHB · #7	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	8.8%	+1030	9¢	7¢	224
134	Bogaerts, Xander RHB · #8	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.99	8.8%	+1031	9¢	7¢	242
135	De Los Santos, Deyvison RHB · #7	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	8.8%	+1032	9¢	7¢	2
136	Conforto, Michael LHB · #8	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.92	8.8%	+1036	9¢	7¢	127
137	DeLuca, Jonny RHB · #6	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.12	8.8%	+1039	9¢	7¢	115
138	McCann, James RHB · #8	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	8.8%	+1040	9¢	7¢	36
139	Lee, Hao-Yu RHB · #2	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	8.8%	+1043	9¢	7¢	78
140	Ruiz, Esteury RHB · #5	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	8.8%	+1042	9¢	7¢	44
141	Pagés, Pedro RHB · #9	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	8.7%	+1047	9¢	7¢	50
142	Rogers, Jake RHB · #9	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.08	8.7%	+1051	9¢	7¢	62
143	Conine, Griffin LHB · #8	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.90	8.7%	+1053	9¢	7¢	24
144	Wong, Connor RHB · #9	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	8.6%	+1058	9¢	7¢	43
145	Tena, José LHB · #5	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	8.6%	+1069	9¢	7¢	141
146	Walton, Donovan LHB · #7	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.06	8.5%	+1072	9¢	7¢	110
147	Mayo, Coby RHB · #5	BAL	Nick Martinez	x1.12	8.5%	+1073	9¢	6¢	124
148	Varsho, Daulton LHB · #5	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.06	8.5%	+1078	8¢	6¢	78
149	Koss, Christian RHB · #9	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.98	8.5%	+1078	8¢	6¢	22
150	Fermín, José RHB · #7	PHI	Cristopher Sánchez	x1.25	8.4%	+1089	8¢	6¢	102
151	Navarreto, Brian RHB · #9	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	8.4%	+1093	8¢	6¢	13
152	Sogard, Nick RHB · #6	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	8.3%	+1097	8¢	6¢	21
153	Moore, Christian RHB · #8	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.00	8.3%	+1106	8¢	6¢	6
154	Bregman, Alex RHB · #4	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.93	8.3%	+1107	8¢	6¢	316
155	Peters, Tristan LHB · #8	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	8.3%	+1109	8¢	6¢	245
156	Rengifo, Luis LHB · #9	SD	Bailey Ober	x0.98	8.2%	+1113	8¢	6¢	163
157	Pasquantino, Vinnie LHB · #3	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.75	8.2%	+1113	8¢	6¢	190
158	Serven, Brian RHB · #9	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	8.2%	+1123	8¢	6¢	12
159	Rave, John LHB · #6	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.75	8.1%	+1132	8¢	6¢	32
160	Torres, Gleyber RHB · #1	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	8.1%	+1133	8¢	6¢	50
161	Waldschmidt, Ryan RHB · #9	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	8.1%	+1134	8¢	6¢	46
162	Kirk, Alejandro RHB · #3	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	8.1%	+1136	8¢	6¢	48
163	Morel, Christopher RHB · #6	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	8.1%	+1140	8¢	6¢	17
164	Ramírez, Agustín RHB · #2	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	8.0%	+1151	8¢	6¢	32
165	Torrens, Luis RHB · #9	CWS	Sean Newcomb	x1.08	7.9%	+1163	8¢	6¢	50
166	Palacios, Richie LHB · #8	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	7.8%	+1176	8¢	6¢	186
167	Montgomery, Braden LHB · #5	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.07	7.7%	+1196	8¢	6¢	123
168	Tolbert, Tyler RHB · #7	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.76	7.6%	+1217	8¢	6¢	38
169	Roden, Alan LHB · #7	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.98	7.5%	+1230	8¢	6¢	45
170	Straw, Myles RHB · #9	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	7.4%	+1245	7¢	6¢	106
171	Wade Jr., LaMonte LHB · #7	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.06	7.4%	+1246	7¢	6¢	7
172	White, Eli RHB · #8	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	7.3%	+1272	7¢	5¢	65
173	Young, Jacob RHB · #9	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.92	7.3%	+1278	7¢	5¢	189
174	Caratini, Victor LHB · #8	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.98	7.2%	+1286	7¢	5¢	165
175	Caballero, José RHB · #9	NYY	José Soriano	x1.13	7.2%	+1291	7¢	5¢	176
176	Keaschall, Luke RHB · #1	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.99	7.1%	+1302	7¢	5¢	237
177	Vázquez, Christian RHB · #9	HOU	Brady Basso	x1.05	7.0%	+1328	7¢	5¢	44
178	Bolte, Henry RHB · #1	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	6.9%	+1350	7¢	5¢	131
179	McGonigle, Kevin LHB · #3	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.75	6.8%	+1372	7¢	5¢	111
180	Walls, Taylor LHB · #9	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	6.6%	+1408	7¢	5¢	149
181	Durbin, Caleb RHB · #5	BOS	Matt Wilkinson	x0.98	6.6%	+1413	7¢	5¢	100
182	Clement, Ernie RHB · #6	NYY	Carlos Rodón	x1.13	6.6%	+1422	7¢	5¢	133
183	Maile, Luke RHB · #8	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.76	6.6%	+1426	7¢	5¢	5
184	Loftin, Nick RHB · #1	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.76	6.5%	+1435	7¢	5¢	135
185	Julks, Corey RHB · #6	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	6.5%	+1438	6¢	5¢	3
186	Edwards, Xavier RHB · #4	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	6.4%	+1456	6¢	5¢	91
187	Ruiz, Keibert LHB · #4	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	6.4%	+1462	6¢	5¢	172
188	Meidroth, Chase RHB · #7	CWS	Nolan McLean	x1.08	6.4%	+1472	6¢	5¢	245
189	Malgeri, Ben RHB · #7	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	6.3%	+1487	6¢	5¢	27
190	Perdomo, Geraldo RHB · #4	ARI	Andrew Abbott	x1.01	6.1%	+1528	6¢	5¢	123
191	Lee, Brooks LHB · #6	SD	Walker Buehler	x0.98	6.1%	+1531	6¢	5¢	272
192	Hernaiz, Darell RHB · #8	HOU	Cristian Javier	x1.05	6.0%	+1555	6¢	4¢	66
193	Kwan, Steven LHB · #1	COL	Tomoyuki Sugano	x1.39	6.0%	+1578	6¢	4¢	269
194	Sanoja, Javier RHB · #6	MIA	Jackson Kent	x0.92	5.8%	+1616	6¢	4¢	90
195	Crawford, Justin LHB · #7	PHI	Kyle Leahy	x1.26	5.7%	+1643	6¢	4¢	247
196	Heineman, Tyler LHB · #9	TEX	Cal Quantrill	x1.01	5.7%	+1648	6¢	4¢	87
197	Clark, Max LHB · #8	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.75	5.7%	+1665	6¢	4¢	16
198	Vivas, Jorbit LHB · #6	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	5.5%	+1729	5¢	4¢	177
199	Ramírez, Pedro LHB · #7	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.92	5.0%	+1892	5¢	4¢	93
200	Collins, Isaac LHB · #5	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.75	5.0%	+1916	5¢	4¢	183
201	Báez, Javier RHB · #9	KC	Daniel Lynch IV	x0.76	4.9%	+1927	5¢	4¢	33
202	Kelly, Carson RHB · #9	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.93	4.9%	+1949	5¢	4¢	164
203	Lee, Jung Hoo LHB · #6	BOS	Jake Bennett	x0.96	4.7%	+2027	5¢	3¢	118
204	Isbel, Kyle LHB · #9	KC	Jacob Waguespack	x0.75	4.0%	+2367	4¢	3¢	125
205	Hoerner, Nico RHB · #6	SEA	Bryce Miller	x0.93	3.3%	+2912	3¢	2¢	342
206	Simpson, Chandler LHB · #5	BAL	Shane Baz	x1.22	2.5%	+3907	2¢	2¢	289
207	Nuñez, Nasim LHB · #8	MIA	Janson Junk	x0.90	2.2%	+4477	2¢	1¢	202

Game HR totals

Game	Park	Exp. HR	P(3+ HR)
Cleveland Guardians @ Colorado Rockies	COL	2.84	54%
St. Louis Cardinals @ Philadelphia Phillies	PHI	2.64	49%
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees	NYY	2.33	41%
Tampa Bay Rays @ Baltimore Orioles	BAL	2.27	40%
Minnesota Twins @ San Diego Padres	SD	2.12	36%
New York Mets @ Chicago White Sox	CWS	1.99	32%
Athletics @ Houston Astros	HOU	1.89	29%
San Francisco Giants @ Boston Red Sox	BOS	1.87	29%
Washington Nationals @ Miami Marlins	MIA	1.62	22%
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals	KC	1.38	16%
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers	TEX	0.99	8%
Cincinnati Reds @ Arizona Diamondbacks	ARI	0.92	7%
Chicago Cubs @ Seattle Mariners	SEA	0.80	5%
ALL GAMES (13)		23.7

Expected combined home runs, both teams, from summing every hitter's modeled rate; P(3+) is the Poisson chance the game clears a 2.5 line.

How to read it: "Fair ¢" is the model's probability as a prediction-market price; "Bid ≤" is the maximum resting bid that keeps an 18%+ edge after the maker's margin -- offers above it are paying more than the model thinks the outcome is worth. P(HR) is the model's probability the player hits at least one home run tonight. "Fair odds" is that probability expressed as an American line -- a posted price longer than fair suggests value, shorter suggests the market likes him more than the model does. BBE is the batted-ball sample behind his talent estimate; small samples are regressed hard toward league average.

Model probabilities, not betting advice. Environment factors are approximations under continuous calibration. Lineups update through the afternoon; rerun snapshots may differ.